摘要
文章基于股票市场高频交易数据和多区域投入产出表,构建了涵盖8个国家83个行业的金融和贸易环境,结合改进的价值链韧性测算方法计算得出中国各行业的双重价值链韧性,并从复杂网络视角分析中国双重价值链韧性在抑制国内外系统性风险传染方面的有效性。研究结果表明:提升中国行业的前向和后向中心性显著增强了国内和全球价值链的韧性,有效降低了系统性风险的传染效应,该效应在全球价值链中更为显著,且在内生性和稳健性检验后依然成立。不同期限长度分析显示,双重价值链韧性在短期内对抑制国内外系统性风险传播具有显著效果,但在中长期则相对较弱。行业异质性分析表明,多数行业在全球价值链层面表现出韧性,抑制了国外系统性风险的传染,但不同行业在国内价值链层面的韧性效果存在差异;结构稳定的行业在重大公共事件期间展现出良好韧性,有效抑制风险传染;而在对系统性风险敏感的行业中,中心性上升未必带来韧性,反而可能加剧风险扩散;部分行业后向中心性增强有助于抑制风险,而前向中心性增强可能促进风险传播。文章的研究为政策制定者在提升双重价值链韧性、防范系统性风险方面提供了重要的政策建议。
Under the frequent occurrence of major public events,it is of great practical significance to scientifically measure the resilience of global and national value chains and to explore the paths to inhibit the contagion of domestic and foreign systemic risks in China.Based on high frequency stock market trading data and multi-regional input-output tables,our paper constructs a financial and trade environment covering 83 industries in 8 countries,combines the dual value chain resilience of Chinese industries,calculated using an improved measurement method,and analyzes the effectiveness of China's dual value chain resilience in inhibiting the contagion of domestic and foreign systemic risks from the perspective of complex networks.The results show that:(1)Enhancing the forward and backward centrality of Chinese industries significantly enhances the resilience of both national and global value chains and effectively reduces the contagion effect of systemic risk,especially in global value chains,which is more significant and still holds true after endogeneity and robustness tests;(2)Analyses of different time periods show that dual value chain resilience has a significant effect in inhibiting the spread of domestic and foreign systemic risks in the short term,but is relatively weaker in the medium and long terms;(3)The analyses of industry heterogeneity show that most industries exhibit resilience at the global value chain level,inhibiting the contagion of foreign systemic risks.However,there are variations in resilience at the national value chain level across different industries.Industries that are structurally stable show great resilience during major public events,effectively inhibiting risk contagion;while in industries that are sensitive to systemic risk,rising centrality may not necessarily bring resilience,but may instead exacerbate risk spread.In addition,some industries reflect increased backward centrality that helps to inhibit risk,while increased forward centrality may enhance risk propagation.The research of our paper provides important policy recommendations for policymakers aiming to enhance the resilience of dual value chains and prevent systemic risks.
作者
朱思宇
李永
ZHU Siyu;LI Yong
出处
《世界经济研究》
北大核心
2025年第7期120-134,M0004,共16页
World Economy Studies
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目“重大突发公共事件下我国系统性金融风险溢出时频域特征与传导顺序研究”(项目编号:22YJA790033)的阶段性成果。
