摘要
As an economically crucial species in the southeast Pacific Ocean,understanding the spatiotemporal distribution changes of the habitat of Trachurus murphyi under the influence of climate change is essential for effective resource assessment and management.The spatiotemporal changes in suitable habitats of T.murphyi under three climate change scenarios(SSP 126,SSP 370,and SSP 585)of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP 6)were explored based on key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of the species in a habitat suitability index(HSI)model.Results show that seawater temperature would increase under different scenarios,while the mixed layer depths would decrease under SSP 370 and SSP 585 scenarios but vary slightly under the SSP 126 scenario,which is similar to the variation in different climate periods.The positive difference in seawater temperature will be distributed in the central,southern,and offshore regions of Chile,and the negative difference in mixed layer depths be accounted for a large region.Under different climate scenarios,the HSI value for fishing ground and the overall proportion of suitable habitat area of T.murphyi will be decreased over the forecasted period.The suitable habitat of T.murphyi is concentrated in the 42°S-47°S area and will move to the southwest in different climate periods.Based on short-term climate change,the proportion of suitable habitat areas in the high seas of Chile is larger than in the exclusive economic zone under medium-and long-term climate change under different scenarios.The results of the gravity center of suitable T.murphyi habitat indicates that the spatial distribution of T.murphyi might be related to variations in oceanic currents.These findings provide insights for the effective fisheries resource management of T.murphyi in the Southeast Pacific Ocean.
基金
Supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023 YFD 2401303)
the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.23 ZR 1427100)
the Shanghai Talent Development Funding(No.2021078)。
