摘要
为分析河北省农田碳排放时空特征、影响因素及脱钩效应,本研究采用排放系数法测算2010—2021年河北省农田碳排放,基于LMDI模型分析其影响因素,基于Tapio脱钩模型分析其与农业产值间的关系。结果表明:河北省农田碳排放以2014年为转折点,呈先波动上升后下降的趋势,2010年排放量(以CO_(2)计,下同)为2818.16万t,2014年达到峰值2855.36万t,2021年下降为1995.82万t;单位产值碳排放整体呈波动下降趋势,从2010年的1.39 t·万元^(-1)到2021年的0.56 t·万元^(-1),年均降低7.93%;农田碳排放呈南部高、北部低的格局,单位产值碳排放呈东南高、西北低的格局。农业生产效率、农业产业结构及城镇化水平对河北省农田生态系统碳排放有抑制作用,农业生产效率是主要抑制因素,年均减排贡献量为205.52万t;地区经济发展水平及农村总人口对碳排放有促进作用,地区经济发展水平是关键促进因素,年均排放贡献量为141.40万t。河北省农田碳排放与农业产值的脱钩状态主要以弱脱钩、弱负脱钩和强脱钩为主,以2017年为转折点,脱钩状态先变差后改善。研究表明,河北省应根据各地区具体情况制定差别化的农田碳排放管控措施,推动农业低碳发展和良性增长。
To analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics,influencing factors and decoupling effect of farmland carbon emission,the emission coefficient method was employed to estimate the farmland carbon emissions in Hebei Province during 2010—2021.The LMDI model was used to analyze influence factors of farmland carbon emissions.Furthermore,the relationship between carbon emissions and agricultural output value was examined based on the Tapio decoupling model.Results showed that,carbon emissions from farmland in Hebei Province experienced a turning point in 2014,showing a trend of fluctuating and increasing,followed by a decrease.The emissions(measured in CO_(2),the same below)were 2.818×10^(7) t in 2010,peaked at 2.855×10^(7) t in 2014,and then decreased to 1.996×10^(7) t in 2021,and emissions per unit of output value showed an overall fluctuating decrease,where from 1.39 t∙104 yuan-1 in 2010 to 0.56 t∙104 yuan^(-1) in 2021,with annually average decrease of 7.93%.Carbon emissions from farmland exhibited a pattern of“higher in the south,lower in the north,”while carbon emissions per unit of output value showed a pattern of“higher in the southeast,lower in the northwest”.Furthermore,agricultural production efficiency,agricultural industrial structure,and urbanization level had a suppressive effect on carbon emissions from farmland ecosystems in Hebei Province,with agricultural production efficiency being the primary factor,which contributes an average annual reduction of 2.055×10^(6) t.Regional economic development level and total rural population promote carbon emissions,with the regional economic development level being the key promoting factor,contributing an average annual increase of 1.414×10^(6) t.The decoupling state between farmland carbon emissions and agricultural output value in Hebei Province was mainly characterized by weak decoupling,weak negative decoupling,and strong decoupling.With 2017 as a turning point,the decoupling state first deteriorated and then improved.It is suggested that Hebei Province should formulate differentiated control measures for farmland carbon emissions based on the specific conditions of each region to promote low-carbon agricultural development and healthy growth.
作者
王嘉玮
李双江
陈艺璇
李含墨
张美娟
刘昱锋
周颖佳
WANG Jiawei;LI Shuangjiang;CHEN Yixuan;LI Hanmo;ZHANG Meijuan;LIU Yufeng;ZHOU Yingjia(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang 050018,China;Pollution Prevention Biotechnology Laboratory of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050018,China)
出处
《农业资源与环境学报》
北大核心
2025年第4期935-943,共9页
Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment
基金
河北省重点研发项目(21374001D)
中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(236Z4801G)。
关键词
农田碳排放
时空特征
LMDI分解模型
脱钩分析
farmland carbon emission
temporal and spatial characteristic
LMDI model
decoupling analysis
