摘要
受地形地貌及河流水系的影响,西藏墨脱地区滑坡地质灾害频发。以墨脱为研究区,采用灰色关联分析确定影响因子权重,同时耦合斜坡单元进行危险性评价,研究高海拔地区的地质灾害分布。结果表明:墨脱滑坡灾害集中分布于距水系1000 m范围内、土地利用类型为森林和鲜血水稻土、岩性为元古界的区域,连续降雨、霜冻、温度会影响地质灾害的发生;危险区分为极高、高、中、低危险区,其中极高危险区分布于古乡等,频率比为2.93。该模型经ROC(受试者工作特征曲线)验证,AUC(ROC曲线下方的面积)为0.974,模型精度满足要求;区内岩性和月平均气温因子权重最大,工程建设中需实时勘探高危险区的岩性,连续降雨和霜冻时发生滑坡灾害的可能性极大。
Affected by topography,landforms and river systems,landslide geological disasters occur frequently in the Medog area of Xizang.Taking Medog as the study area,grey relational analysis was adopted to determine the weights of the influencing factors.Meanwhile,the slope unit was coupled for risk assessment to study the distribution of geological disasters in high-altitude areas.The results show that the Medog landslide disaster is concentrated in the area within 1,000 meters from the water system,where the land use type is forest and fresh paddy soil and the lithology is Proterozoic.Continuous rainfall,frost and temperature will affect the occurrence of geological disasters.The hazard areas are classified into extremely high,high,medium and low hazard areas.Among them,the extremely high hazard areas are distributed in Guxiang and other places,with a frequency ratio of 2.934.This model was verified by ROC(receiver operating characteristic curve),with an AUC(area under the curve)of 0.974,and the model accuracy met the requirements.The lithology and monthly average temperature factors in the area have the largest weights.During the engineering construction,the lithology of the high-risk area needs to be explored in real time.The possibility of landslide disasters occurring during continuous rainfall and frost is extremely high.
作者
黄永芳
郭永刚
徐建宇
李峰
荆旭君
Huang Yongfang;Guo Yonggang;Xu Jianyu;Li Feng;Jing Xujun(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Xizang Agricultural and Animal Husbandry University,Linzhi 860100,Xizang,China;China Research Center of Civil,Hydraulic and Power Engineering of Xizang,Linzhi 860100,Xizang,China)
出处
《地质学刊》
2025年第2期203-214,共12页
Journal of Geology
基金
西藏自治区科技重大专项课题“高深峡谷地质灾害防治及对工程安全影响分析关键技术”(XZ202201ZD0003G03)
西藏农牧学院研究生教育创新计划项目“藏东南地区滑坡链生灾害大数据评价预警及云平台设计”(YJS2023-45)。
