摘要
针对近年中国锡产业资源保障弱化、供应链风险加剧及结构性失衡问题,本文基于USGS、中国有色金属工业协会及ITA数据,采用产业链分析法与供需平衡模型展开研究。结果表明:(1)锡资源危机凸显,锡矿储量从2014年的150万t锐减至2024年的100万t,全球占比由31.3%降至23.8%,叠加2013—2022锡勘查投入10 a缩减70%及2023—2024年零新增矿权等因素,静态开采年限不足10 a;(2)供应链高度脆弱,进口依存度高,而缅甸政策扰动导致2024年进口量同比暴跌47.9%;(3)产业结构割裂,冶炼产能过剩,但高端产品(如5N级锡)严重依赖进口,下游新兴需求未能有效承接。为此提出三维治理路径:资源端加大深地勘查与境外并购、技术端突破高端产品国产化、制度端构建多元进口体系,以实现从“产量大国”向“锡业强国”的战略转型。
This study addresses the recent challenges of weakened resource security,intensified supply chain risks,and structural imbalances in China's tin industry.Based on data from the USGS(2025),China Nonferrous Met-als Industry Association(2024),and ITA(2024),we employed industrial chain analysis and supply-demand equilib-rium modeling to conduct our research.The results reveal:(1)A prominent resource crisis,with tin reserves plum-meting from 1.5 million tonnes in 2014 to 1 million tonnes in 2024,causing China's global share to drop from 31.3%to 23.8%.Factors contributing to a 70%reduction in tin exploration investment over a ten-year period from 2013 to 2022 and zero new mining rights granted during 2023-2024,the static mine life now falls below 10 years;(2)Highly fragile supply chains characterized by heavy import dependence,with Myanmar's policy disruptions triggering a 47.9%year-on-year plunge in China's 2024 tin imports;(3)Fragmented industrial structure featuring excess smelt-ing capacity alongside severe import reliance on high-end products(e.g.,5N-grade tin),while emerging downstream demand remains inadequately met.To address these issues,we propose a three-dimensional governance pathway:enhancing deep-earth exploration and overseas acquisitions in resources;achieving breakthroughs in domestic pro-duction of high-end technologies;and establishing a diversified import system institutionally.This integrated strat-egy aims to facilitate China's strategic transition from a'volume power'to a'tin industry powerhouse'.
作者
安天浩
王幻
郭牧凡
熊靓辉
AN Tianhao;WANG Huan;GUO Mufan;XIONG Lianghui(Beijing Institute of Geology for Mineral Resources Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100012,China;Research Center for Green Evaluation of Mineral Resources.CGS,Beijing 100012,China)
出处
《矿产勘查》
2025年第5期1256-1264,共9页
Mineral Exploration
基金
中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目“保障我国矿产资源安全的政策研究(2022-XZ-39)”资助。
关键词
锡资源储量
进口依存度
技术瓶颈
新兴需求
资源安全治理
Tin resource reserves
import dependency
technological bottlenecks
emerging demand
resource security governance
