摘要
推动新型城镇化建设与人类福祉提升的协调发展有利于可持续发展目标的实现。文章综合运用耦合协调度、障碍度模型、灰色预测等方法对2012—2021年长三角城市群新型城镇化与人类福祉水平耦合协调度的演变特征、驱动因素及未来趋势进行了分析。结果表明:(1)新型城镇化和人类福祉水平空间上呈逐渐收敛的“东高西低”不均衡分布格局;(2)二者耦合协调度有所提升,但区域间呈现“核心带动外围”的空间“极化”现象,高值区域集中于杭甬、沪宁两条轴线;(3)医疗卫生、公共设施、水资源安全、养老保险参保为主要障碍因子,其中医疗卫生为首位障碍因素;(4)未来各城市耦合协调度均会上升,到2031年所有城市均可达到协调状态。
Improving the synergistic development of new urbanization and human well-being is conducive to the realization of sustainable development goals.Based on the methods of the coupling coordination degree model,obstacle degree model,and grey prediction,this paper investigates the evolution,driving forces,and future trajectories of the coupled coordination between new urbanization and human well-being in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2012 to 2021.It's found that:1)New urbanization index and human well-being index show the uneven spatial distribution which is higher in the east of research area than that in the west of research area.2)The coupling coordination degree between new urbanization index and human well-being index has improved,but there is a spatial polarization of"core driven by the periphery"in the inter-regional area.The high-value areas are concentrated in two axes of Hangzhou-Ningbo,Shanghai-Nanjing.3)Medical and health care,public facilities,water resources security,pension insurance participation are the main obstacle factors,medical and health care is the first obstacle factor.4)The coupling coordination degree of all cities will increase in the future,and all cities will reach a coordinated state by 2031.
作者
陈臻
伊然
洪志生
王方艺
CHEN Zhen;YI Ran;HONG Zhisheng;WANG Fangyi(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《经济地理》
北大核心
2025年第5期57-64,共8页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72473053)
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(72321002)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(24JZD042)。
关键词
新型城镇化
人类福祉
可持续发展目标
耦合协调度
医疗卫生
障碍度模型
长三角城市群
new type of urbanization
human well-being
sustainable development goals
coupling coordination degree
medical and health care
barrier degree model
Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
