摘要
马铃薯是喜凉、不耐高温的作物,全球气候变暖给马铃薯带来了严峻的挑战,因此,研究气候变化对马铃薯气候生产潜力的影响在马铃薯实际生产中具有科学的指导作用,可为马铃薯产业布局、提质增效提供科学支撑。本研究选取宁夏1981-2020年马铃薯发育期观测资料和8个气象站点的逐日气象资料,采用逐级订正法,研究马铃薯生产潜力的分布特征及变化趋势,并分析了气温、降水、太阳辐射等气候因子变化及气候变化对马铃薯气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明:1981-2020年宁夏马铃薯平均气候生产潜力整体呈南高北低的分布特征,而光合生产潜力和光温生产潜力的分布与其相反。近40年来宁夏马铃薯气候生产潜力总体呈升高的趋势,其气候倾向率为321.4 kg/hm^(2)·10a。1981-2020年宁夏马铃薯生育期太阳辐射量减小对其气候生产潜力的影响以负效应为主,仅在最南部为正效应;平均气温升高对马铃薯气候生产潜力的影响主要是正效应,仅在吴忠市盐池县和同心县为负效应;降水量的增加对马铃薯气候生产潜力的影响在宁夏马铃薯主产区以正效应为主,除了吴忠市同心县;气候变化对马铃薯气候生产潜力的影响除同心县以外均为正效应。总之,气候暖湿化有利于宁夏马铃薯的增产,而太阳辐射量的减小对马铃薯生长不利。未来需引进耐寒、耐旱、光合效率高的马铃薯新品种,种植密度在30000株/hm^(2),调整播期,以提高农业气候资源利用率,促进当地马铃薯稳产高产。
Potato(Solanum tuberosum L.)is a cool-season crop that is sensitive to high temperatures.Global warming poses serious challenges to its cultivation.Therefore,assessing the effect of climate change on the climatic potential productivity(CPP)of potato provides guidance for optimizing industrial layout and enhancing yield and quality.In this study,phenological data of potato and daily meteorological data from eight weather stations in Ningxia from 1981 to 2020 were analyzed using a stepwise correction method.The spatial distribution and temporal trends of potato CPP were examined,along with the effects of the key climatic factors such as temperature,precipitation,and solar radiation.The results indicated that from 1981 to 2020,potato CPP in Ningxia exhibited a spatial pattern of higher productivity in the south and lower in the north.In contrast,the distribution of photosynthetic potential productivity and light-temperature productivity showed an opposite trend.Over the past 40 years,the overall CPP of potato in Ningxia increased,with a climatic trend rate of 321.4 kg/hm^(2)·10a.Declines in solar radiation generally had a negative effect on potato CPP,except in southern Ningxia where a slight positive effect was observed.Rising average temperatures exerted a predominantly positive effect,with negative effects limited to the counties of Yanchi and Tongxin in Wuzhong City.Increased precipitation generally had a positive effect across major potato-producing areas,again with the exception of Tongxin County.Overall,climate change has had a positive effect on potato CPP across most of Ningxia.Although reduced solar radiation remains a limiting factor,warming and increased humidity have been favorable for potato yield in the region.To further enhance yield stability and resource use efficiency,it is recommended to introduce cold-and drought-tolerant,high-photosynthetic-efficiency potato varieties,maintain a planting density of approximately 30,000 plants per hectare,and adjust sowing dates accordingly.
作者
吴志岐
郭军伟
庞艳梅
陈超
WU Zhiqi;GUO Junwei;PANG Yanmei;CHEN Chao(Xiji Meteorological Bureau,Xiji,Ningxia 756200,China;Guyuan Meteorological Bureau,Guyuan,Ningxia 756000,China;Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu-Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu,Sichuan 610072,China)
出处
《陕西农业科学》
2025年第6期79-86,99,共9页
Shaanxi Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
西吉县科技研发计划项目(2024KJYF002)。
关键词
气候变化
马铃薯
生产潜力
宁夏
Climate change
Potato
Potential productivity
Ningxia
