摘要
建立布鲁氏菌病防控系统动力学模型,探究羊布鲁氏菌病系统的主要因素及反馈机制,以期对羊布鲁氏菌病防控决策的制定提供理论支持。该模型主要由传播主体、感染子结构、检测子结构和环境子结构组成,引入了免疫接种、检测扑杀和消毒3种措施,评价不同措施对疾病防控的影响。敏感性分析中感染率和接触系数对布鲁氏菌病防控效果的反馈影响明显;疫苗接种、检测扑杀、消毒虽是有效的防控措施,但单一措施不能根除布鲁氏菌病,3种措施并举效果较好;分析得出检测净化的情况下,免疫措施的引入虽然降低了感染的峰值,但可能会导致布鲁氏菌感染周期的延长,使布鲁氏菌病防控系统变得更为复杂。用系统动力学模型分析羊布鲁氏菌病的防控效果,有助于评估布鲁氏菌病控制规划的决策适用性,并定量传染病的风险因素。
By establishing a system dynamics model for brucellosis prevention and control,the main factors and feedback mechanisms of the sheep brucellosis system were investigated in order to provide theoretical support for decision-making on brucellosis prevention and control in sheep.The model is mainly composed of transmission body,infection substructure,detection substructure and environment substructure,and three measures,immunization,detection culling and disinfection,were introduced to evaluate the impact of different measures on disease prevention and control.Feedback influence of infection rate and contact coefficient on the effectiveness of the prevention and control of brucellosis in the sensitivity analysis were obvious;although vaccination,detection and culling and disinfection are effective brucellosis prevention and control measures,the implementation of a single measure cannot eradicate brucellosis,and the combination of the three measures is the most effective prevention and control measure;in addition,the analysis concluded that the introduction of immunization measures in the case of detection and culling reduces the peak value of the infection,but it also leads to the prolongation of the infection cycle,making the brucellosis prevention and control system more complex.Using a system dynamics model to analyze the prevention and control effectiveness of brucellosis in sheep aids for quantifying the risk factors of infectious diseases.
作者
何曾文
马金锐
张浩浩
王子坚
梁斌
曹青
薛慧文
苟惠天
HE Zeng-wen;MA Jin-rui;ZHANG Hao-hao;WANG Zi-jian;LIANG Bin;CAO Qing;XUE Hui-wen;GOU Hui-tian(College of Veterinary Medicine,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou,Gansu,730070,China;Gansu Provincial Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center,Lanzhou,Gansu,730046,China)
出处
《动物医学进展》
北大核心
2025年第8期121-127,共7页
Progress In Veterinary Medicine
基金
现代丝路寒旱农业科技支撑项目(GSLK-2022-17)
国家自然科学基金项目(32060822,31960726)。
