摘要
为了研究城市网约车和巡游出租车的动态竞争关系及其对交通碳排放的影响,引入赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)度量城市出租车的竞争程度.构建包括政府和企业在内的四方博弈模型,考虑2种决策顺序,提出16种博弈场景,运用斯坦克尔伯格模型计算均衡点,筛选得到8种稳定博弈情景.基于博弈结果,将COPERT模型与改进的Michaelis-Menten(T-M-M)方程整合,计算碳排放量.以西安市为例,构建车辆数量(含网约车和巡游出租车)与行驶里程,车辆保有量与碳排放间的关系,计算得出不同博弈策略下的理论最优碳排放量.结果显示,西安市网约车与巡游出租车最优比例控制在29∶35到1∶1能够维持市场平衡和低碳环保.政府可通过限行、限号政策使巡游出租车数量略多于网约车,出台鼓励政策推动巡游出租车电气化进程.
To study the dynamic competitive relationship between ride-sourcing and cruise taxis in urban environments and their impact on traffic carbon emissions,the Herfindahl-Hirschman index(HHI)was introduced to quantify the competitiveness of urban taxis.A four-player game model encompassing the government and enterprises was constructed.Considering two distinct decision-making sequences,16 potential game scenarios were proposed.Equilibrium points were computed using the Stackelberg model,leading to the identification of 8 stable game scenarios.Based on the game outcomes,carbon emissions were calculated by integrating the COPERT model and a modified Michaelis-Menten(T-M-M)equation.Taking Xi’an as a case study,relationships between vehicle numbers(including both ride-sourcing vehicles and cruise taxis)and vehicle kilometers traveled,as well as between vehicle fleet size and carbon emissions,were established.The theoretical optimal carbon emissions under the proposed game scenarios were calculated.Results show that maintaining an optimal ratio of ride-sourcing vehicles and cruise taxis within the range of 29∶35 to 1∶1 in Xi’an can effectively balance market stability and low-carbon objectives.The government can implement traffic restriction policies(e.g.,driving bans based on license plates)to maintain a slightly larger fleet of cruise taxis relative to ride-sourcing vehicles,alongside introducing incentive policies to accelerate the electrification of the cruise taxi fleet.
作者
矫金池
孙健
倪训友
JIAO Jinchi;SUN Jian;NI Xunyou(School of Transportation Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China;School of Future Transportation,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China;School of Transportation Engineering,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《浙江大学学报(工学版)》
北大核心
2025年第7期1373-1384,共12页
Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52172319,71971138,72161012)。
关键词
城市交通
共享出行
出租汽车
竞争
博弈理论
碳排放
urban transportation
shared mobility
taxis
competition
game theory
carbon emissions
