摘要
探究气候变化背景下水蜜桃各生育期气候适宜度的时间变化特点,为宁波水蜜桃产业可持续发展提供支持。基于2000—2023年奉化国家基本气象观测站逐日气象资料,应用模糊数学法,结合水蜜桃生长不同生育期气象指标,建立温度、降水和日照适宜度模型,并用几何平均法建立水蜜桃各生育期气候适宜度评价模型。通过气候产量验证,本研究所构建的气候适宜度模型可以较好地描述和分析水蜜桃气候适宜程度。从单气象要素适宜度对比排序,温度适宜度最高,降水适宜度次之,日照适宜度最低;各要素适宜度存在年际波动,且呈下降趋势,其中日照适宜度气候倾向率为-0.069/10 a,下降幅度最大。从各生育期看,温度适宜度和气候适宜度在膨大期最小,变异系数最大;降水适宜度在膨大—成熟期最小,变异系数最大;日照适宜度在硬核期最小,膨大期变异系数最大;除日照适宜度外,营养恢复期的各适宜度均处于高位,对应的变异系数最小。水蜜桃各生育期的温度、降水、日照和气候适宜度有着明显的时间变化,在膨大期变化最显著,在生产上要制定有针对性的栽培措施以减缓不利气候条件对水蜜桃产量的影响。
To explore the temporal variations of climate suitability during different growth stages of juicy peaches and provide support for the sustainable development of the juicy peach industry in Ningbo,the suitability model of temperature,precipitation,and sunshine was established using the fuzzy mathematics method based on meteorological indices of juicy peaches and daily meteorological data.A climate suitability model was then established using the geometric average method.The results showed that the constructed climate suitability model can better describe and analyze the climate suitability of peaches,based on the climate yield verification.From the ranking results of the suitability of single meteorological elements,the temperature suitability is the highest,followed by the precipitation suitability,and the sunshine suitability is the lowest.The suitability of various climate factors has internal changes and a downward tendency.The sunshine suitability has the most significant downward trend,with a climatic tendency rate of-0.069/10 a.The suitability of temperature and climate is the lowest during the fruit-expansion period,with the highest coefficient of variation.The suitability of precipitation is the lowest and the coefficient of variation is the highest during the period from expansion to maturity.The sunshine suitability is the lowest during the hard core stage and has the highest coefficient of variation during the fruit-expansion stage.Except for the suitability of sunshine,all suitability during the nutritional recovery period is at a high level,with the lowest coefficient of variation.Therefore,there are significant temporal variations in temperature,precipitation,sunshine,and climate suitability at the different growth periods of juicy peaches,with the most significant changes occurring during the fruit-expansion period.Targeted cultivation measures should be developed in production to mitigate the impact of adverse climate conditions on the yield and quality of juicy peaches.
作者
朱晓翠
胡波
郑健
李军
张晟宁
ZHU Xiaocui;HU Bo;ZHENG Jian;LI Jun;ZHANG Shengning(Fenghua District Meteorological Bureau of Ningbo,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315500;Ningbo Bureau of Meteorology,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315012;Shanghai Meteorological Insititute,Shanghai 200030)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2025年第19期110-118,共9页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
宁波市气象科技计划项目“宁波市生态气候资源和气象历史文化挖掘研究”(NBQX2023004A)
宁波市气象科技计划项目“宁波桃花花期气象服务策略研究”(NBQX2023014B)。
关键词
水蜜桃
生育期
气候适宜度
时间变化
宁波
juicy peaches
different growth period
climate suitability
temporal variation
Ningbo
