摘要
可再生能源的迅速发展加快了新型电力系统的建设,而新能源波动性强、随机性高等特点限制了智能电网的应用。鉴于华东电网呈现大受端、高密度、强耦合特性,因此以其为例采用统计学方法分析该区域新能源资源特性。首先,从供需平衡角度探讨新能源出力在不同参与度下的电网运行情况,定量分析其对供电可靠性的影响。其次,提出基于出力特征的精细化多尺度模型,将出力同时率融入小时级、分钟级时间尺度,揭示不同时空的新能源出力水平。再次,建立网省站三级资源架构模型,基于资源转移状态分析频率分布特征和时空相关性,进而辨识新能源发电的延续性趋势。研究成果可为电网运行和电网规划提供重要依据。
The rapid development of renewable energy has accelerated the construction of the new power system.However,characteristics such as the strong volatility and high randomness of renewable energy limit the application of smart grids.Given that the East China Power Grid exhibits large power-receiving,high-density,and strongly coupled characteristics,it serves as an example for analyzing the resource characteristics of the renewable energy in this region using statistical methods.First,from the perspective of supply-demand balance,the grid operation under the different levels of renewable energy participation is explored,quantitatively analyzing its impact on power supply reliability.Second,a refined multi-scale model based on output features is proposed.This model integrates the output simultaneity rate into hourly and minute-level time scales,revealing the renewable energy output levels across different times and spaces.Third,a three-level resource architecture model(grid-province-station)is established.Based on resource transition states,the frequency distribution characteristics and spatiotemporal correlations are analyzed,thereby identifying the continuity trends of renewable energy power generation.The research findings can provide an important basis for power grid operation and planning.
作者
李建华
李成奥
陆建宇
许江蛟
LI Jianhua;LI Chen’gao;LU Jianyu;XU Jiangjiao(East Branch of State Grid Corporation of China,Shanghai 200120,China;School of Electrical Power Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)
出处
《智慧电力》
北大核心
2025年第7期53-60,共8页
Smart Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52377111)
国家电网有限公司华东分部科技项目(SGHD0000DKJS2400385)。
关键词
新能源
资源特性
统计学特征
数据挖掘
renewable energy
resource characteristics
statistical characteristics
data mining
