摘要
屏边三七是我国二级重点保护野生植物,具有重要药用价值,但其地理分布狭窄且对气候条件敏感,野外种群濒危。该研究基于全球生物多样性信息平台获取的19个分布点数据,结合WorldClim提供的生物气候变量,通过最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟当前及未来气候变化下屏边三七的适生区变化。结果表明,模型模拟分析精度高(AUC:0.997),当前高度适生区(133 409 km^(2))集中分布于中国云南南部(文山州、红河州)及越南北部。未来气候变化下适生区呈现显著分化,2021—2040年ssp245情景适生区扩张38.7%,而2041—2060年ssp585情景适生区面积增至211 851 km^(2),但ssp245情景下则下降14%。关键气候因子分析显示,年平均气温(Bio1,贡献率26%)和年降水量(Bio12,贡献率23.8%)为主导因子,适生区最适条件为年均温16.6℃、年降水1 782.6 mm、年温差19.3℃。研究揭示屏边三七适生区对气候变化响应敏感,ssp585高排放路径下远期适生区可能扩大,但极端气候变化可能加剧栖息地破碎化,需针对性制定保护策略并优化人工栽培布局。该成果为濒危物种保护与药用资源可持续利用提供科学依据。
Panax stipuleanatus is a Class II nationally protected wild plant in China with significant medicinal value.However,its narrow geographical distribution,high sensitivity to climatic conditions,and endangered wild populations pose critical conservation challenges.This study utilized 19 distribution records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF)and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim to simulate current and future shifts in suitable habitats for Panax stipuleanatus under climate change scenarios using the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt).The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy(AUC=0.997).Current highly suitable habitats span approximately 133409 km2,concentrated in southern Yunnan Province,China(e.g.,Wenshan Prefecture and Honghe Prefecture)and northern Vietnam.Future projections revealed divergent trends:under the ssp245 scenario(2021-2040),suitable areas expanded by 38.7%,whereas by 2041-2060,the ssp585 scenario projected a 14%decline in suitable areas under ssp245 but a significant increase to 211,851 km2 under ssp585.Key climatic drivers included mean annual temperature(Bio1,contribution rate 26%)and annual precipitation(Bio12,contribution rate 23.8%),with optimal conditions identified as a mean temperature of 16.6益,annual precipitation of 1,782.6 mm,and annual temperature range of 19.3益.The study highlights the sensitivity of Panax stipuleanatus habitats to climate change.While high-emission scenarios(e.g.,ssp585)may expand suitable areas in the long term,extreme climatic shifts could exacerbate habitat fragmentation.Targeted conservation strategies,including habitat protection and optimized artificial cultivation,are urgently needed to ensure both species survival and sustainable utilization of medicinal resources.These findings provide a scientific foundation for the conservation of endangered species and sustainable management of medicinal plants under global climate change.
出处
《智慧农业导刊》
2025年第14期29-32,36,共5页
JOURNAL OF SMART AGRICULTURE
基金
广州海关科研项目(2022GZCK15)。
关键词
气候变化
预测
濒危物种
环境变量
适生区
climate change
prediction
endangered species
environmental variable
suitable areas
