摘要
目的探讨1992年至2021年全球腹泻病的时间变化趋势,并分析年龄、时期及队列等因素对腹泻病负担产生的影响。方法利用2021年全球疾病负担数据库,分析1992年至2021年204个国家腹泻病的死亡率,根据社会人口指数(SDI)将全球划分为高SDI、中高SDI、中SDI、中低SDI和低SDI地区,计算不同SDI地区估计年度百分比变化(EAPC),采用年龄-时期-队列模型来评估腹泻病负担中死亡率的年龄、时期和队列变化效应。结果2021年全球腹泻病的死亡人数为1165000人,中低收入国家为965000人。全年龄段死亡率为14.76/10万人[95%不确定性区间(UI):(10.05~20.50)/10万人],年龄标准化死亡率为15.42/10万人[95%UI:(10.87~20.91)/10万人],EAPC比1992年下降了4.46(95%UI:4.29~4.63)。1992年至2021年全球腹泻病死亡人数显著下降,从2845000人减少至1165000人,死亡率减少了59%,死亡率净漂移为-4.05(95%UI:-4.13~-3.98),EAPC值-5.3(95%UI:-5.45~-5.16),疾病负担明显下降。中低SDI及低SDI地区中,5岁以下及80岁以上死亡率明显增加。年龄效应模式中,低SDI地区从60岁开始死亡率随年龄增长明显增加;在时期效应模式与队列效应中,中SDI、中低SDI及低SDI地区死亡率逐渐下降。低SDI和中低SDI地区的死亡率净漂移下降幅度较大,主要集中在2006-2021年。结论1992-2021年间全球腹泻病死亡率总体在下降,低SDI和中低SDI地区的死亡率下降幅度较大,但仍是全球死亡人数主要组成部分。在低SDI和中低SDI地区,5岁以下儿童和60岁以上老年人是高风险群体。
Objective To explore the temporal patterns of diarrheal diseases during the period from 1992 to 2021,and to examine the effects of age,period,and cohort factors on the burden of diarrhea.Methods Utilizing data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study,mortality from diarrhea in 204 countries from 1992 to 2021 was analyzed.Based on the socio-demographic index(SDI),the world was divided into different income regions including high SDI,upper-medium SDI,medium SDI,lower-medium SDI,and low SDI areas.The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in different SDI regions was calculated and the age-period-cohort model was used to assess the age,period,and cohort effects on the mortality burden of diarrhea.Results In 2021,the global number of diarrhea-related deaths reached 1165000,with 965000 occurring in low-and middle-income countries;the all-age mortality rate was 14.76[95%uncertainty interval(UI):10.05-20.50]per 100000 population,and the age-standardized mortality rate was 15.42(95%UI:10.87-20.91)per 100000 population,EAPC representing a decrease of 4.46(95%UI:4.29-4.63)compared to 1992.The global number of deaths from diarrhea decreased significantly from 2845000 to 1165000 from 1992 to 2021,with a reduction in mortality rate of approximately 59%.The net drift of the mortality rate was-4.05(95%UI:-4.13 to-3.98),and the EAPC value was-5.3(95%UI:-5.45 to-5.16),indicating a marked decline in the disease burden.In regions with medium-low SDI and low SDI,the mortality rate of those under 5 and over 80 years old with diarrhea had significantly increased.In the age effect model,in low SDI regions,the mortality rate had significantly increased with age starting from 60 years old.In the period effect model and cohort effect model,in medium SDI,medium-low SDI,and low SDI regions,the mortality rate had gradually decreased.The net drift of mortality rate in low SDI and medium-low SDI regions had decreased significantly and mainly concentrated from 2006 to 2021.Conclusions The global mortality rate of diarrhea had generally declined from 1992 to 2021.The mortality rate in low SDI and lower-medium SDI regions had decreased significantly,but they still accounted for the majority of global deaths.In low SDI and lower-medium SDI regions,children under 5 year old and the elderly over 60 year old are high-risk groups.
作者
郝洁
吴湘涛
田小军
常廷民
杨卫红
黄倩
HAO Jie;WU Xiangtao;TIAN Xiaojun;CHANG Tingmin;YANG Weihong;HUANG Qian(Department of Pediatrics,the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University,Weihui 453100,Henan Province,China;Department of Neurology,the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University,Weihui 453100,Henan Province,China;Department of Gastroenterology,the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University,Weihui 453100,Henan Province,China)
出处
《新乡医学院学报》
2025年第8期637-642,共6页
Journal of Xinxiang Medical University
基金
2024年度河南省科技攻关项目(编号:242102310117)。
关键词
腹泻
死亡率
年龄-时期-队列
中低收入国家
diarrhea
mortality
age-period-cohort
low-and middle-income countries
