摘要
在全球市场一体化的背景下,中国与越南的农产品贸易面临新态势。文章基于2010—2022年中国与越南农产品出口贸易数据,概述了两国农产品出口市场结构及产品结构,利用随机前沿引力模型进行实证分析,研究中国和越南各自的农产品出口效率及潜力,深入探索中越合作策略,以扩展两国农产品出口市场。研究发现,中国与越南的农产品出口市场及出口商品结构存在较高的趋同化,且越南的农产品出口贸易效率明显高于中国。两国都释放了农产品出口潜力,但释放市场存在明显差异。中国的出口潜力来源于对东南亚市场的开拓,而越南则主要依赖于对中国和印度市场的挖掘。从未来的拓展空间看,中国的冰山型市场数量多于越南,集中于发达国家,潜力提升空间更大;越南则集中于印度与俄罗斯。基于以上研究结论,本文分别从产品、企业、政府层面提出针对性建议:产品层加强技术合作以优化结构,企业层深化农业产业链协同以构建优势互补体系,政府层多维度布局市场以完善贸易生态,助力两国农产品出口竞争力提升与协同发展。
Against the backdrop of global market integration,agricultural trade between China and Vietnam is facing new dynamics.Based on the export trade data of agricultural products between China and Vietnam from 2010 to 2022,this paper outlines the ex⁃port market structure and product structure of agricultural products in the two countries.It uses the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Mod⁃el for empirical analysis to study the export efficiency and potential of agricultural products in China and Vietnam,and deeply ex⁃plores Sino-Vietnamese cooperation strategies to expand the two countries’agricultural product export markets.The study finds that the export markets and product structures of agricultural products in China and Vietnam are highly convergent,and Vietnam’s agricultural export trade efficiency is significantly higher than that of China.Both countries have unleashed the potential of agricul⁃tural exports,but the released markets differ significantly.China’s export potential comes from the development of the Southeast Asian market,while Vietnam mainly relies on the exploration of the Chinese and Indian markets.In terms of future expansion space,China has more“iceberg-type”markets than Vietnam,which are mainly in developed countries and have greater potential for improvement;Vietnam's are in India and Russia.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward targeted sugges⁃tions from the prospective of product,enterprise,and government levels:strengthening technical cooperation at the product level to optimize the structure,deepening agricultural industry chain collaboration at the enterprise level to build a complementary advan⁃tage system,and deploying markets in multiple dimensions at the government level to improve the trade ecology,so as to help en⁃hance the export competitiveness and collaborative development of agricultural products in the two countries.
作者
毛娅婷
林梦星
霍增辉
陈富桥
Mao Yating;Lin Mengxing;Huo Zenghui;Chen Fuqiao(College of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,China;Tea Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Hangzhou 310008,China)
出处
《新疆农垦经济》
2025年第7期46-58,70,共14页
Xinjiang Agricultural Reclamation Economy
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(项目编号:22YJAZH153)
浙江省科技计划项目软科学研究项目(项目编号:2024C35091)
中国计量大学“一带一路”区域标准化研究中心课题(项目编号:BRZK07B)。
关键词
中国
越南
农产品
出口效率测定
随机前沿引力模型
China
Vietnam
agricultural products
measurement of export efficiency
stochastic frontier gravity model
