摘要
目的分析2010—2020年南京市溧水区户籍居民4类主要慢性病的早死负担及其变化趋势,为探讨实现“健康中国2030”下降目标的可能性。方法通过收集整理2010—2020年南京市溧水区户籍居民死因监测资料,计算过早死亡粗率、过早死亡标化率、早死寿命损失年(years of life lost,YLL)、过早死亡概率等指标,采用Joinpoint软件分析上述指标的变化趋势,并进一步按性别和病种分层分析4类主要慢性病的早死负担。结果2010—2020年南京市溧水区户籍居民4类主要慢性病合计过早死亡粗率、过早死亡标化率、YLL率、标化YLL率和过早死亡概率分别为270.41/10万、223.31/10万、107.64‰、79.93‰、11.95%。过早死亡粗率、过早死亡标化率、标化YLL率、过早死亡概率均呈下降趋势(P<0.05),其中男性高于女性。在4类主要慢性病中,恶性肿瘤和心脑血管疾病的过早死亡标化率、标化YLL率和过早死亡概率均呈下降趋势(P<0.05),其中恶性肿瘤YLL率和过早死亡概率分别为50.56‰和7.47%,为4类慢性病中最高。4类主要慢性病的过早死亡概率下降按以下顺序排列:心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病、糖尿病。根据平均增长速度预测,至2030年4类主要慢性病的过早死亡概率均可以达到“健康中国2030”下降目标。结论南京市溧水区户籍居民4类主要慢性病的早死负担呈下降趋势,可以实现“健康中国2030”目标,但本底值较低,若要进一步下降存在一定困难,仍应继续采取干预措施,并且建议将慢性病的防治重点关注男性、恶性肿瘤和糖尿病人群。
Objective To analyze the burden of premature death due to four main types of chronic diseases and its changing trend among household-registered residents in Lishui District,Nanjing City from 2010 to 2020,and to explore the possibility of realizing the goals of reduction of burden of premature death from Healthy China 2030.Methods We collected and sorted out the monitoring data about causes of deaths among household-registered residents in Lishui District,Nanjing City from 2010 to 2020,and then calculated the indicators like the crude premature death rate,the age-standardized premature death rate,the years of life lost(YLL)from premature death and the probability of premature death.Joinpoint software was used to analyze the changing trends in the above-mentioned indicators,and the burden of premature death from four main types of chronic diseases was further stratified and analyzed according to genders and disease types.Results The crude premature death rate,the age-standardized premature death rate,the YLL rate,the age-standardized YLL rate and the probability of premature death from four main types of chronic diseases among household-registered residents in Lishui District,Nanjing City during 2010-2020 were 270.41/100,000,223.31/100,000,107.64‰,79.93‰and 11.95%respectively.The crude premature death rate,the age-standardized premature death rate,the age-standardized YLL rate and the probability of premature death all showed decreasing trends(P<0.05),and the above-mentioned indicators were higher in males than in females.Among four main types of chronic diseases,the age-standardized premature death rate,the age-standardized YLL rate and the probability of premature death from malignant tumors and cardiovascular diseases showed downward trends(P<0.05).The YLL rate and the crude premature death rate from malignant tumors were 50.56‰and 7.47%respectively,which were found to be the highest among four main types of chronic diseases.The decreases in the probabilities of premature death of four main types of chronic diseases were arranged in the following order:cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,malignant tumors,chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes.By 2030,the probabilities of premature death of four main types of chronic diseases can all reach the reduction goals from Healthy China 2030 according to the prediction based on the average growth speed.Conclusion The burden of premature death from four main types of chronic diseases among household-registered residents in Lishui District,Nanjing City showed downward trends,suggesting that the goals of Healthy China 2030 can be achieved.However,the baseline value is relatively low,and it is still difficult to further reduce the burden.Intervention measures should be taken continuously,and it is suggested that special attention should be paid to males and patients with malignant tumors or diabetes in chronic disease prevention and treatment.
作者
李菁玲
严昕园
杨华凤
LI Jingling;YAN Xinyuan;YANG Huafeng(Lishui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211200,China;Lishui District Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211200,China;Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China)
出处
《实用预防医学》
2025年第5期513-517,共5页
Practical Preventive Medicine
基金
江苏省老年健康科研项目(LK2021006)
第十一周期(2020—2024年)南京市医学重点专科“慢性非传染性疾病预防控制科”。
关键词
过早死亡概率
标化率
趋势
健康中国2030
probability of premature death
standardized rate
trend
Healthy China 2030
