摘要
当前,如何“稳增长”并兼顾“稳金融”是突破中国经济运行困境的关键。在梳理特征事实与实证分析基础上,本文构建了一个区分国有企业和民营企业,包含金融摩擦的动态宏观模型,从“稳增长”和“稳金融”视角揭示国企投资在跨越经济周期中的作用与机制。实证结果表明,各省份国有企业占比越高,其GDP和金融增长越稳定,且这一特征在经济下行时愈发显著。机制模拟发现,经济下行冲击迫使商业银行杠杆约束收紧,增大金融供给摩擦,抑制企业投资并降低总产出;但是,国有企业逆周期投资能降低产出下降幅度,发挥“稳增长”效应,并且通过缓解银行部门的杠杆约束,增加银行信贷供给,国有企业投资还能发挥“稳金融”效应并挤入民营企业投资。进一步分析表明,国有资本占比与生产效率越高,国有企业投资逆周期调控效应越显著。此外,相较于政府消费支出,国有企业投资在确保经济平稳运行中的作用更为显著。
Stabilizing both economic growth and financial stability is crucial for addressing the challenges facing China's economy.This paper develops a dynamic macro model that distinguishes between state-owned and private enterprises and incorporates financial frictions.Empirical evidence shows that provinces with a higher share of state-owned enterprises(SOEs)experience more stable GDP and financial growth,especially during downturns.Model simulations reveal that economic shocks tighten commercial banks'leverage constraints,increase financial frictions,and suppress investment and output.However,countercyclical investment by SOEs mitigates output declines and enhances financial stability by easing banks'constraints and expanding credit supply,which also crowds in private investment.These stabilizing effects are stronger with higher state capital shares and greater production efficiency.Furthermore,SOEs'investment is more effective than government consumption in maintaining economic stability.
作者
赖华侹
刘定
LAI Huating;LIU Ding
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第7期19-38,共20页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国财政货币政策组合演化与宏观经济稳定研究:理论模型、作用机制与定量分析”(项目编号:22YJC790074)
重庆市自然科学基金面上项目“机器学习与高维非线性动态模型中的最优货币财政政策组合设计”(项目编号:CSTB2024NSCQ-MSX0718)
重庆市社会科学规划项目一般项目“‘碳定价+产业政策’赋能重庆制造业上下游绿色协同发展的机理与路径研究”(项目编号:2024NDYB056)。
关键词
国有企业
金融摩擦
逆周期投资
稳增长
稳金融
State-owned enterprises
Financial friction
Counter-cyclical investment
Stable growth
Financial stability
