摘要
随着居民对动物性食物消费需求的不断增长,饲料粮需求持续增加,人畜争粮矛盾日益凸显。准确测算并预估动物性食物生产耗粮量,对评估中国粮食安全形势具有重要意义。本文从居民食物消费转型入手,通过校准2000—2022年动物性食物消费数据,预测未来动物性食物以及口粮消费变化趋势,并结合饲料转化率,估算2022—2050年食物消费结构变化对中国粮食安全形势的影响。研究发现,饲料粮需求将由2022年的3.09亿吨增长至2050年的4.40亿吨。其间,饲料粮占粮食需求比例先由44.98%上升至52.57%,后回落至47.81%;如果消费者按照《中国居民膳食指南(2022)》推荐膳食模式消费,饲料粮需求则会持续下降,由2022年的4.00亿吨降至2050年的3.29亿吨,粮食自给率随之持续上升,贸易依存度不断下降。未来,食物消费升级和膳食结构调整将促使中国粮食安全问题日益表现为“饲料安全”问题。
As the residents’demand for animal-based food surges,the demand for feed grains continues to grow,intensifying the competition for food between humans and livestock.Accurately estimating the amount of grain required for animal-based food production is crucial for assessing China’s grain security.This paper starts with the transformation of residents'food consumption,calibrates the consumption data of animalbased foods from 2000 to 2022,predicts the future trends of animal-based food and staple food consumption,and estimates the impact of changes in food consumption structure from 2022 to 2050 on China's food security situation in combination with feed conversion rates.The results indicate that the grain consumption for animal-based food production will increase from 309 million tons in 2022 to 440 million tons in 2050.The grain consumption rate will rise from 44.98%in 2022 to 52.57%in 2040 and then decline to 47.81%in 2050.However,if consumers shift to the healthy diet recommended by China Dietary Guideline for Residents(2022),the grain consumption for animal-based food production will decline from 400 million tons in 2022 to 329 million tons in 2050,resulting in an increase in the grain self-sufficiency rate and a decrease in the trade dependency ratio.In the future,the upgrading of food consumption and dietary changes will make China’s food security increasingly reliant on“feed security”.
作者
许鸿宇
乔聪聪
龙文进
田旭
XU Hongyu;QIAO Congcong;LONG Wenjin;TIAN Xu(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《食物经济与管理》
2025年第2期10-23,共14页
Food Economics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金地区与组织间合作交流项目“营养目标下的食物供给与消费均衡研究”(编号:72361147521)。
关键词
动物性食物消费
粮食安全
饲料安全
Animal-based Food Consumption
Grain Security
Feed Security
