摘要
传染病对人类健康、经济、社会稳定具有重大影响,危害程度取决于其传播速度、传播媒介。人类是传染病传播的载体之一,但人口流动又受到GDP的影响,因此研究人口流动与GDP在传染病传播过程中的作用具有重要意义。目前传染病研究以SEIR模型为主,少有学者考虑GDP因素对传染病的影响。本文基于人口与GDP的Pearson相关系数,验证两者的关联性,提出融合流动人口与GDP的传染病模型。以贵阳市疫情传播为例进行实证分析,结果显示新模型预测效果优于SEIR模型,更接近传染病传播的实际情况。
Infectious diseases exert a significant impact on human health,the economy and social stability.The degree of harm depends on their transmission speed and vectors.Human beings are one of the vectors of infectious diseases,but population mobility is also affected by GDP.Therefore,studying population mobility and GDP plays an important role in the process of infectious disease transmission.At present,the research on infectious diseases mainly relies on the SEIR model,and few scholars consider the influence of GDP on infectious diseases.Based on the Pearson correlation coefficient between population and GDP,this paper demonstrates the correlation between the two and proposes an infectious disease model integrating floating population and GDP.Taking"epidemic spread in Guiyang City"as an example for empirical analysis,the results show that the prediction of the new model is superior to that of the SEIR model and is closer to the actual situation of infectious disease spread.
作者
吴福生
李佳芳
代雨
蒋光艳
Wu Fusheng;Li Jiafang;Dai Yu;Jiang Guangyan(Key Laboratory of Economic System Simulation,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics;School of Public Administration,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《计算机时代》
2025年第7期1-6,共6页
Computer Era
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(62062019)。
