摘要
目的:分析2019—2023年勐海县肺结核流行特征,为边境地区结核病防控提供科学依据。方法:基于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的病例报告数据,采用描述性流行病学方法分析其时空分布特征。构建季节性自回归积分滑动平均(ARIMA)模型预测发病趋势。结果:累计报告1857例,年均发病率105.92/10万,报告发病率呈波动下降趋势(χ^(2)=32.474,P<0.01)。空间分布显示勐满镇(187.83/10万)、打洛镇(135.00/10万)和西定乡(127.74/10万)为高发区域(P<0.05)。男性1320例(71.08%),女性537例(28.92%),性别比2.46∶1,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=270.143,P<0.01)。各年龄组均有发病,45~49岁发病率最高(11.75/10万),5岁以下最低(0.11/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=52.738,P<0.01)。职业分布以农民为主(1484例,79.91%)、其次为羁押人员(94例,5.06%)、学生(73例,3.93%)。ARIMA模型预测2024年肺结核发病率仍呈波动下降趋势,全年均有病例报告,无明显季节高峰。结论:勐海县边境乡镇肺结核发病率显著高于内陆地区,与内陆乡镇相比,勐满镇和打洛镇的发病率较高。男性和青壮年人群的发病率较高,可能与社会活动频繁、卫生意识不足相关。职业分布中,农民的发病数最高。勐海县肺结核防控需重点关注跨境人口流动活跃的边境乡镇及青壮年男性农民群体。
OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis(TB)in Menghai County from 2019 to 2023 and provide a scientific basis for TB prevention and control in border areas.METHODS TB case reports from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System were extracted for Menghai County from 2019 to 2023 based on the date of onset and current residence.The epidemiological characteristics were analyzed,and the optimal model was established to predict TB incidence.RESULTS The reported TB incidence in Menghai County showed a fluctuating downward trend(χ^(2)=32.474,P<0.01),with a total of 1857 cases and an average annual incidence of 105.92/105.There was no significant spatial correlation between the townships(χ^(2)=32.474,P<0.01),but higher incidences were reported in Mengman(187.83/105),Daluo(135.00/105),and Xiding(127.74/105)(P<0.05).Males accounted for 1320 cases(71.08%)and females for 537 cases(28.92%),with a male-to-female ratio of 2.46∶1,and the difference was statistically significant(χ^(2)=270.143,P<0.01).All age groups were affected,with the highest incidence in the 45~49 age group(11.75/105)and the lowest in children under 5 years old(0.11/105),with a significant difference between age groups(χ^(2)=52.738,P<0.01).By occupation,farmers accounted for the majority(1484 cases,79.91%),followed by detainees(94 cases,5.06%)and students(73 cases,3.93%).The ARIMA model predictions showed that the incidence of TB in 2024 still showed a fluctuating downward trend,with cases reported throughout the year and no obvious seasonal peaks.CONCLUSION The incidence of TB in border townships of Menghai County is significantly higher than inland areas,which may be related to cross-border population movement and limited medical resources in border areas.Compared with the inland townships,the incidence rates were higher in Menghai and Daluo townships,suggesting that cross-border transmission may be an important factor.In addition,the higher incidence rates among males and young adults may be related to frequent social activities and a lack of hygiene awareness.It is consistent with the results of related studies at home and abroad and further confirms that the border area is a key area for tuberculosis prevention and control.
作者
张凤成
顾知渊
陈金殴
赵石桂
沈志欠
Zhang Fengcheng;Gu Zhiyuan;Chen Jin’o;Zhao Shigui;Shen Zhiqian(Menghai County Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Menghai,Yunnan,666200,China;不详)
出处
《中国初级卫生保健》
2025年第5期58-62,共5页
Chinese Primary Health Care
关键词
勐海县
肺结核
流行特征
ARIMA
边境地区
menghai county
tuberculosis
prevalence characteristics
ARIMA
border area
