摘要
在全球经济增长放缓、地缘政治冲突加剧、能源转型加速等多重因素的影响下,矿产资源市场呈现出复杂多变的特点。为更好地把握中国矿产资源开发利用的现状及发展趋势,采用定量与定性相结合的研究方法,综合运用统计学、对比分析法等,对国内外矿产资源市场数据进行深入分析。通过对矿产品产量、价格、投资、进出口等关键指标进行梳理,揭示了中国矿产资源市场的运行态势;将中国与全球主要经济体的矿产资源开发利用情况进行对比,明晰了中国在全球矿产资源市场中的地位与特点;对中国矿产资源开发利用进行全面剖析,把握其发展面临的内外部因素。研究结果表明,2024年全球矿业市场走势分化明显,能源矿产价格回落,有色金属价格多数上涨,黄金等贵金属价格持续大幅上涨;中国矿业投资力度加大,地质勘查投资和采矿业固定资产投资均保持较高增长态势,矿产资源开发向西部转移趋势显著,西部地区相关指标占全国比重持续上升,以国有控股企业为主的多元化矿业开发格局更趋合理,矿山企业生产效率不断提升;矿产资源开发利用总体呈现“量增价跌”态势,全国原矿产量持续增长,但矿产品价格普遍下跌,致使采矿业工业总产值、矿产品销售收入和企业年利税总额均同比减少。展望2025年,全球经济增速放缓和供给增加将导致国际大宗矿产品市场走弱,不同矿产品价格走势分化;全球地质勘查投入回落,但国内地质勘查投入有望继续增加;中国矿业产品生产预计保持平稳,但企业经济效益和利润有所下降;能源转型将大幅推动清洁能源技术的矿产需求增长,关键矿产品的市场价值有望在2040年达到7700亿美元。为此,中国需充分发挥国内统一大市场和经济内循环优势,强化实体经济;依靠科技创新推动能源和矿产资源产业转型升级;加强国际合作,保障境外矿产资源有效供给;促进矿产资源可持续开发利用,为经济高质量发展提供坚实保障。
Under the influence of multiple factors such as slowdown of global economic growth,intensification of geopolitical conflicts and acceleration of energy transformation,the mineral resources market presents complex and changeable characteristics.In order to better grasp the current situation and development trend of mineral resources development and utilization in China,a combination of quantitative and qualitative research methods was adopted,and statistical and comparative analysis methods were comprehensively used to conduct in-depth analysis of domestic and foreign mineral resource market data.By sorting out key indicators such as mineral product output,price,investment,import and export,the operational situation of China's mineral resources market was revealed.By comparing the development and utilization of mineral resources between China and major economies in the world,the status and characteristics of China in the global mineral resources market were clarified.The development and utilization of mineral resources in China was comprehensively analyzed,and the internal and external factors facing its development were grasped.The results show that in 2024,the trend of the global mining market is obviously divided,the price of energy minerals falls,the price of most non-ferrous metals rises,and the price of precious metals such as gold continues to rise sharply.China's mining investment has increased,geological exploration investment and mining fixed asset investment have maintained a high growth trend,and the development of mineral resources has shifted significantly to the west.The proportion of relevant indicators in the western region has continued to rise,the diversified mining development pattern dominated by state-owned holding enterprises has become more reasonable,and the production efficiency of mining enterprises has been continuously improved.The development and utilization of mineral resources generally shows a trend of"quantity increase and price decrease".The national raw ore production continues to grow,but the price of mineral products generally declines,resulting in a year-on-year decrease in the total output value of the mining industry,the sales income of mineral products and the total annual interest and tax of enterprises.Looking forward to 2025,the slowdown of global economic growth and the increase of supply will lead to the weakening of the international bulk mineral market and the differentiation of the price trend of different mineral products.The global geological exploration investment has fallen back,but the domestic geological exploration investment is expected to continue to increase.The production of China's mining industry is expected to remain stable,but the economic benefits and profits of enterprises have declined.Energy transformation will greatly promote the growth of demand for clean energy technology minerals,and the market value of key minerals is expected to reach$770 billion in 2040.To this end,China needs to give full play to the advantages of a unified domestic market and economic internal circulation,and strengthen the real economy.Scientific and technological innovation should be relied on to promote the transformation and upgrading of energy and mineral resources industry.International cooperation should be strengthened to ensure the effective supply of overseas mineral resources.And sustainable development and utilization of mineral resources should be promoted,so as to provide a solid guarantee for high-quality economic development.
作者
吴琪
葛振华
高宇
张必欣
仇巍巍
朱先云
WU Qi;GE Zhenhua;GAO Yu;ZHANG Bixin;QIU Weiwei;ZHU Xianyun(Information Center of Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100036,China)
出处
《矿业研究与开发》
北大核心
2025年第6期288-300,共13页
Mining Research and Development
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA049)
自然资源部预算项目(102121201010000009011)。
关键词
矿产勘查
矿产资源开发
矿产品供需
矿产品价格
矿业市场
Mineral exploration
Mineral resources development
Supply and demand of mineral products
Price of mineral products
Mining market
