摘要
当前研究中国未来农村人口和乡村变迁对促进农业农村现代化和中国式现代化具有重大意义。本文基于全国100个行政村调研数据,利用2010年和2020年两次全国人口普查数据,建立农村人口预测模型,预测发现中国农村人口数量将持续减少,到2050年降至2.62亿,老龄化程度进一步加深,农村劳动力数量不断下降,到2050年将下降到1.5亿。农村人口变迁将推动农业生产经营方式集约化、收入来源多元化,并对农村社会事业发展及乡村治理提出新的要求。本文提出要顺应未来人口变迁趋势制定人口发展战略、农村人才战略、创新农村养老模式,加快推进农业现代化、城乡融合发展。
Currently,studying China’s future rural population and rural transformation is of great significance for promoting agricultural and rural modernization as well as Chinese-style modernization.Based on the survey data from 100 administrative villages across China,the data from the 2010 and 2020 national population censuses,and utilizing the Chinese rural population projection model,this study predicts that the rural population in China will continue to decline,reaching 262 million by 2050.The aging population in rural areas will further intensify,and the number of rural labor force will continue to decrease,dropping to 150 million by 2050.The transformation of rural population will drive the intensification of agricultural production and operation methods,diversify income sources,and pose new demands on the development of rural social undertakings and rural governance.This paper proposes that we should align with future demographic trends,formulate population development strategies and rural talent strategies,innovate rural elderly care models,and accelerate the advancement of agricultural modernization and integrated urban-rural development.
作者
中国乡村振兴研究院课题组
韩长赋
The Research Group of China Academy of Rural Vitalization
出处
《农业经济问题》
北大核心
2025年第6期4-10,共7页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
关键词
农村人口
乡村变迁
人口老龄化
Rural population
Rural transformation
Chinese-style modernization
Aging population
