摘要
本文基于内生生产网络的模型构建思路,将复杂网络生成模型融入新结构一般均衡框架,构建了包含多层网络(要素网络和生产网络)的新结构一般均衡模型。在模型较好地拟合现实经济的基础上,遵循“要素禀赋结构—要素网络结构—部门节点生产结构—生产网络结构—生产网络韧性”的研究逻辑,对要素投入结构失衡是否构成中国生产网络韧性风险产生的根源性因素进行了探究。研究结果表明:要素投入结构失衡的确能够影响生产网络韧性,且其正向失衡能够在短期增加生产网络的韧性风险;要素投入结构失衡的异质性在造成生产网络韧性风险上亦存在差异,要素投入结构对应的生产技术阶段越接近关键核心技术前沿,其正向失衡对生产网络韧性水平的冲击效应越显著;在传导机制上,理论模型的推导及后续的冲击模拟皆证明,要素投入结构失衡能够通过扭曲生产网络结构,在短期增加生产网络韧性风险。本文的研究结论为“百年未有之大变局”背景下,从根源上着手提升生产网络韧性水平和保障产业安全提供了启示。
In this paper,based on the model construction idea of the endogenous production network,the complex network generation model is integrated into the new structure general equilibrium framework,and a new structure general equilibrium model including a multi-layer network(factor network and production network)is constructed.Based on better fitting the model to the real economy,following the research logic of"factor endowment structure-factor network structure-department node production structure-production network structure-production network toughness",the paper explores whether the imbalance of factor endowment structure constitutes the root cause of the resilience risk of China's production network.The results show that:(1)Factor endowment structure can indeed affect the resilience of the production network,and its positive imbalance can increase the resilience risk of the production network in the short term;(2)The imbalance of heterogeneous factor endowment structure has different impacts on the resilience of production networks.The closer the production technology stage corresponding to factor endowment structure is to the frontier of key core technologies,the more significant the impact of positive imbalance on the resilience of production networks;(3)In terms of transmission mechanism,the derivation of the theoretical model and the subsequent shock simulation both prove that the imbalance of factor endowment structure can increase the production network resilience risk in the short term by distorting the production network structure.The research conclusion of this paper provides an important theoretical basis and policy guidance for improving the resilience level of production networks from the root to ensure industrial safety under the background of"great changes not seen in a century".
作者
景文治
吴学艳
Jing Wenzhi;Wu Xueyan(School of International Economics and International Relations,Liaoning University)
出处
《经济评论》
北大核心
2025年第3期38-60,共23页
Economic Review
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“技术标准影响我国制造企业出口‘增量提质’:理论、实证与政策设计研究”(23YJA630021)
辽宁大学青年科研基金项目“新发展格局下中国制造业生产网络韧性提升研究”(LDQN2022008)的资助。
关键词
新结构经济学
复杂网络
要素投入结构
网络结构
生产网络韧性
New Structural Economics
Complex Network
Factor Input Structure
Network Structure
Production Network Resilience
