摘要
目的研究自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMI)在云南省戊型肝炎报告病例数预测中的运用,并利用该模型预测云南省戊型肝炎发病趋势,为科学防控戊型肝炎提供参考依据和建议。方法收集2012—2021年云南省各月戊型肝炎报告病例数,采用SPSS 27.0建立ARIMA模型,利用2022年的数据对模型进行验证及参数优化,运用确定的模型预测2023年戊型肝炎的发病情况。结果云南省戊型肝炎发病呈现一定的季节性分布,病例多集中在3~8月。模型ARIMA(3,1,4)(1,1,1)_(12)所有参数均通过统计学检验;Ljung-Box检验统计量Q=10.050,P=0.346,残差序列为白噪声序列,拟合优度平稳R^(2)=0.591。以2022年数据验证模型外推效果,平均绝对误差百分比MAPE=14.747,显示模型外推效果较好,2023年云南省戊型肝炎发病人数预计为1086人。结论ARIMA(3,1,4)(1,1,1)_(12)模型对云南省戊型肝炎病例数拟合效果好,可预短期测未来流行趋势,为制定戊型肝炎防控措施提供理论依据。
Objective To explore the application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model in predicting the number of reported hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province,to use this model to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis E,and to provide reference for the scientific prevention and control of hepatitis E.Methods Monthly reported cases of hepatitis E in Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2021 were collected.The ARIMA model was established using SPSS 27.0,and the model was validated and parameters were optimized with data from January 2022 to December 2022.The optimal fitting model was used to predict the incidence of hepatitis E in 2023.Results Hepatitis E incidence in Yunnan Province showed a certain seasonal distribution,with most cases concentrated from March to August.All parameters of ARIMA(3,1,4)(1,1,1)_(12)passed statistical tests.The Ljung-Box test showed statistic Q=10.050,P=0.346,residual sequence was a white noise sequence,and goodness-of-fit index stationary R^(2)was 0.591.The model extrapolation effect was verified with 2022 data,and MAPE was 14.747,indicating that the model extrapolation effect was effective.The number of hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province in 2023 was expected to be 1086.Conclusion The ARIMA(3,1,4)(1,1,1)_(12)model shows good fitting performance for hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province and can effectively predict short-term disease trends,providing a theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control measures for hepatitis E.
作者
朱碧莲
唐映梅
丁峥嵘
何继波
包维民
李秦念
ZHU Bilian;TANG Yingmei;DING Zhengrong;HE Jibo;BAO Weimin;LI Qinnian(The Secend Affiliated Hospital of kunming Medical University,Kunming,Yunnan 650000,China;Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chenggong,Yunnan 650500,China;Yunnan First People′s Hospital,Kunming,Yunnan 650000,China)
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2025年第4期37-41,共5页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金(82360108)
中联肝健康促进中心(CLH2023-F-HEV-08)
云南省陈洁专家工作站(202305AF150065)
云南省医学领军人才(L-2019013)
云南省万人计划-名医专项(YNWR-MY-2018-028)。
