摘要
交通运输行业是我国经济的基石和战略支柱,其货运指标与整体经济形势表现息息相关。面对近年来的百年变局和世纪疫情挑战,我国经济发展和交通运输都发生了明显变化,二者之间的关联关系势必出现新特征新趋势。研究美国、德国、日本等发达国家二者之间的中长期关系结论发现,交通运输与经济发展关系相关性变弱并逐步解耦。探索我国交通运输与经济发展的中长期规律显示,我国货运量增速与GDP增速变化趋势总体保持同步,具有较强的正相关关系,货运增长速度总体快于经济增长,二者关系从解耦发展到耦合与解耦交替的关系。短期规律显示,货物运输与国民经济均受疫情影响变化较大,疫情期间产生不同程度的波动变化,货运量对工业增加值的弹性总体处于同向变化,与其增速总体变化幅度较为接近;对社会消费品零售总额弹性有所下降,与其增速总体变化保持同向、但变化幅度前者要大于后者;对进出口总额弹性整体始终维持在较为稳定的水平,与其增速总体变化总体保持同向。
The transportation industry serves as the cornerstone and strategic pillar of economy,with its freight index closely linked to the overall economic performance.In light of the significant changes and challenges posed by recent global shifts and the pandemic,China's economic development and transportation dynamics have undergone substantial transformations,leading to new characteristics and trends in their correlation.Studies on the medium-and long-term relationships in the United States,Germany,and Japan indicate a weakening and gradual decoupling of the correlation between transportation and economic development.In contrast,long-term analysis within China reveals that the growth rates of freight traffic and GDP generally align,showing a strong positive correlation.Historically,the growth rate of freight traffic has outpaced economic growth,transitioning from a decoupled to a coupled and then back to a decoupled relationship.Short-term analysis highlights that both cargo transportation and the national economy have been significantly impacted by the pandemic,exhibiting varying degrees of fluctuation.The elasticity of freight volume to industrial added value generally aligns with the overall change in growth rates.Conversely,the elasticity of total retail sales of consumer goods has decreased,maintaining the same directional change as the overall growth rate but with greater variability.The elasticity of total imports and exports has remained relatively stable,with the overall change in growth rates consistently moving in the same direction.
作者
桑美英
梁鸿旭
SANG Meiying;LIANG Hongxu(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《综合运输》
2025年第5期3-8,53,共7页
China Transportation Review
关键词
实物量指标
价值量指标
定量分析
匹配关系
Physical quantity index
Value quantity index
Quantitative analysis
Matching relationship
