摘要
本文使用中国30个省份1997-2019年的面板数据分析碳排放、能源消费和经济增长间的关系。首先分别加入能源消费和能源结构两个控制变量考察环境库兹涅茨曲线假说在中国是否成立,然后以人均碳排放量为中介变量分析能源结构转型对经济增长的影响。研究结论如下:第一,中国人均碳排放量与经济增长之间存在明显的倒“U”型关系,即环境库兹涅茨曲线在中国适用。第二,推算出中国碳达峰时间不会晚于2030年,在高速增长模式下最早将于2025年实现碳达峰。第三,能源结构转型对经济增长的直接效应和间接效应均显著但方向相反,即能源结构转型能够促进经济增长,只是人均碳排放量的降低遮掩掉了部分对人均收入增长的促进效果。
Panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2019 is used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth.Firstly,energy consumption and energy structure are regard as the two control variables to investigate whether the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid in China.Secondly,the impact of energy structure transformation on economic growth is analyzed by using per capita carbon emissions as an intermediary variable.The conclusions include three aspects:First,there is an obvious inverted U-shaped relationship between China's per capita carbon emissions and economic growth,that is,the Environmental Kuznets Curve is applicable in China.Second,it is estimated that China's carbon emission peak will not be later than 2030,and under the high-speed growth scene,the peak will be reached at the earliest in 2025.Third,the direct and indirect effects of energy structure transformation on economic growth are significant but in opposite directions,that is,energy structure transformation can promote economic growth,but the reduction of per capita carbon emissions suppresses part of the promotion effect on per capita income growth.
作者
王运豪
杨皓翔
官国宇
WANGYun-hao;YANG Hao-xiang;GUAN Guo-yu(Key Laboratory for Applied Statistics of MOE,School of Mathematics and Statistics,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;School of Economics and Management,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China)
出处
《数理统计与管理》
北大核心
2025年第3期522-536,共15页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2021QT002)。
关键词
二氧化碳排放
能源
经济增长
遮掩效应
中介效应模型
carbon dioxide emissions
energy
economic growth
suppression effect
mediating effect model
