特朗普主义与经济全球化的未来被引量：3

Trumpism and Its Implications for the Future of Economic Globalization

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摘要特朗普主义作为一种深刻影响美国未来走向和全球格局的重大政治现象,其在理论层面的本质剖析及其对经济全球化未来深远冲击的科学评估,构成了当前亟待深入研究的重大理论问题和战略问题。特朗普主义在本质上是对内反建制、对外反体系,其核心特征表现为民粹主义、民族主义、保护主义和孤立主义。从生态制度主义的视角看,特朗普主义是世界之变、历史之变、时代之变的产物,在利益政治中代表着建制主义与反建制主义的对决,在身份政治中代表着美国主义与全球主义的对决,在特朗普主义冲击下的世界长期大致会朝“一体两翼,一球两制”的方向发展。特朗普主义坚持“美国优先”,试图调整美国与世界经济体系的关系,进而重塑全球经济体系,但其内政外交却面临“破而难立”的困局。全球贸易战是特朗普主义推行的必然结果,这将破坏现有国际经济秩序,曾经被视为“历史终点”的自由经济秩序正步入黄昏,低成本经济全球化或已终结,国际经济秩序面临重构,一个条块分割、碎片化、高成本、竞争性和无序的全球经济新阶段或已开启。面对特朗普主义对经济全球化带来的巨大而深远的冲击,中国应坚持以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性,坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放,坚持真正的多边主义,推动普惠包容的经济全球化,积极参与全球经济治理与国际经济秩序变革,致力于建设开放型世界经济与构建人类命运共同体。 Trumpism has become a major variable influencing the future of the United States and even the direction of global progress.How to theoretically dissect the essence of Trumpism and scientifically assess its profound impact on the future of economic globalization become a significant theoretical and strategic issue.In nature,Trumpism is anti-establishment domestically and anti-system internationally,representing a major transformation in U.S.economic strategy.Its core characteristics include populism,nationalism,protectionism,and isolationism.From the perspective of ecological institutionalism,Trumpism is a product of global transformation,historical shifts,and epochal change.In terms of political interest,it represents a confrontation between establishmentarianism and anti-establishmentarianism,while in political identity,it embodies a clash between Americanism and globalism.Under the impact of Trumpism,the world is likely to evolve over the long term toward a direction of"one body with two wings,one globe with two systems".Trumpism,adhering to the doctrine of"America First,"seeks to redefine the United States'relationship with the global economic system and reshape the world economic order.However,its domestic and foreign policies are caught in a dilemma of"disrupting without rebuilding."A global trade war is an inevitable outcome of Trumpism,which is undermining the existing international economic order.The liberal economic order which was once seen as the"end of history"is now at risk,and the era of low-cost economic globalization may have come to an end.The international economic order faces restructuring,and is likely ushering a fragmented,high-cost,competitive and disordered new phase.Faced with the profound and far-reaching impact of Trumpism on economic globalization,China should respond to the uncertainties of a rapidly changing external environment with the certainty of high quality development.It must firmly expand high-standard opening-up,uphold true multilateralism,promote inclusive and equitable economic globalization,actively engage in global economic governance and the reform of the international economic order.It must remain committed to building an open world economy and fostering a community with a shared future for mankind.

作者王勇赵可金宋国友李巍罗振兴 Wang Yong;Zhao Kejin;Song Guoyou;Li Wei;Luo Zhenxing(School of International Studies, Peking University;the Center for American Studies, Peking University;the Center for International Political Economy, Peking University;School of Social Sciences of Tsinghua University;the Institute for Global Development of Tsinghua University;Center for American Studies, Fudan University;School of International Studies of Renmin University of China;Center for American Studies,Renmin University of China;Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)