摘要
为探究河池市甘蔗低温冻害的时空特征及风险分布情况,利用河池市206个气象站(包括国家气象站和区域自动站)2015~2024年逐日最低气温数据,基于甘蔗低温冻害指标,分析低温冻害的主要发生时段,然后通过建立基于国家气象站(N)和国家气象站+区域气象站(N+R)的极端最低气温与地理因子的2套回归模型,最后分别对其进行精细化低温冻害区划,并采用实际灾情数据进行对比验证分析。结果表明:(1)河池市12月15日至12月24日和次年1月21日至1月30日出现极端低温频率最高,分别为26.2%和22.3%;(2)基于N+R的分级风险区划结果显示,河池市低温冻害总体呈现一个北重南轻的空间分布,重度区所占面积比例最大,中度区次之,无灾区最小,在小区域范围内灾害程度还随海拔变化明显,海拔越高灾害等级越高;(3)比对实际灾情数据,基于N+R分级风险区划与实际受灾情况吻合度较高,并明显优于基于N的分级风险区划结果。研究结果可为甘蔗防灾减灾生产提供科学参考。
In order to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and risk distribution of sugarcane chilling and freezing injuries in Hechi City,daily minimum temperature data from 206 meteorological stations(including national meteorological stations and regional automatic stations)in Hechi City from 2015 to 2024 was used in the study and the main occurrence periods of low-temperature freeze injury in sugarcane based on cold damage indicators were analyzed.By establishing two sets of regression models based on national meteorological stations(N)and a combination of national and regional meteorological stations(N+R)for extreme minimum temperatures and geographical factors,refined zoning of low-temperature cold damage was conducted for both data sources.The results were comparatively validated by using actual disaster data from the Bodong sugarcane-growing area.The results showed that:①The periods with highest extreme low-temperature frequency in Hechi City were December 15th~24th(26.2%)and January 21st~30th of the following year(22.3%);②The zoning results based on N+R data showed that the spatial distribution of freeze damage generally exhibited a north-south gradient of severity,with severely affected areas occupying the largest proportion,followed by moderately affected areas,and disaster-free areas being least common.Local damage intensity showed significant elevation dependence,with higher altitude corresponding to increased disaster severity;③The zoning results based on N+R data demonstrated high consistency with actual disaster distribution,and demonstrated significantly better performance than the N-based zoning results.These findings provide scientific reference for sugarcane disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.
作者
刘芳
陈燕丽
覃志刚
李先平
LIU Fang;CHEN Yanli;QIN Zhigang;LI Xianping(Hechi Meteorological Bureau,Hechi 547099,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanning 530022,Guangxi,China;Baise Field Research Station for Karst Ecological Meteorology,Guangxi Meteorological Adminstration,Baise 533000,Guangxi,China)
出处
《甘蔗糖业》
2025年第3期48-57,共10页
Sugarcane and Canesugar
基金
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金“无人机多模态遥感和作物模型结合甘蔗糖分估算研究”(42465010)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金“高光谱遥感与地面观测数据结合的区域甘蔗糖分估算研究”(42105175)。
关键词
甘蔗
低温冻害
高频时段
回归模型
分级风险
Sugarcane
Chilling and freezing injuries
High-frequency periods
Regression model
Graded risk
