摘要
本研究基于大国竞争视角,选取贸易占比、利率与汇率水平等指标构建中美双边货币竞争优势指数,分别以2017年8月至2023年6月中美经贸摩擦事件频度以及2012年1月至2023年6月美国从中国以外国家与地区货物进口占比、中美关系紧张指数构建中美经贸摩擦强度指数,基于多变量E-G两步法建立时间序列模型,分析了中美货币竞争优势、中美经贸摩擦强度与人民币国际化水平之间的关系。研究发现,人民币相对美元国际竞争优势提升是人民币国际化水平提高的基础,但中美经贸摩擦强度越大,货币竞争优势提升对人民币国际化的促进作用就越被削弱。该负向调节效应主要通过降低境外主体投资或储备人民币资产意愿的途径体现,美国对华主动发起经贸摩擦的负向调节作用更为显著。中国在努力提升国家核心竞争力的同时应降低对美元支付体系的依赖,以必要反制措施降低中美经贸摩擦发生的概率,提升人民币结算及资产便利性与安全性。
RMB's international competitive advantage has been gradually improving since China officially implemented the internationalization strategy around 2010,which became a solid foundation for RMB internationalization.Meanwhile,the intensity of economic and trade frictions between China and the United States increased significantly in recent 10 years,which may have an impact on the ongoing process of RMB internationalization.Based on the perspective of great power competition,the paper constructed the China-US Monetary Competitive Advantage Index(MCAI)using multiple dimensions of relative indicators between China and the United States by Entropy Method,and constructed the China-US Economics&Trade Friction Intensity Index(ETFII)respectively based on the frequency of China-US economics/trade competition events from August 2017 to June 2023,and the proportion of goods imported from countries and regions other than China by the United States,US-China Tension Index(UCT)from Jan 2012 to June 2023.The paper established a time series model to analyze the relationship among China-US MCAI,China-US ETFII and the internationalization level of the RMB using multivariate E-G two-step methods.It is found that China-US MCAI had a significant promoting effect on the internationalization level of the RMB,which constituted the foundation for RMB's internationalization level increasement.While the greater the China-US ETFII was,the smaller the promoting effect of China-US Monetary Competitive Advantage on RMB Internationalization level,which shown a significant negative regulatory effect.The negative effect was mainly reflected by reducing the willingness of overseas individuals/institutions and government departments to invest or reserve RMB assets,and the economic and trade frictions initiated by the United States against China during the inspection period could weaken the promoting effect rather than frictions initiated by China.We suggest China to reduce the dependence on the US dollar payment system,take effective countermeasures against the unreasonable suppression of the United States in the economic and trade field on necessary occasions to reduce the probability and frequency of the United States initiating economic and trade frictions with China.China also needs collaborate with trade partners to establish a new international settlement system independent on the US dollar and operates on an equal footing,thereby substantially enhancing the ability to resist various economic,trade,and financial sanctions.
作者
马光明
赵峰
MA Guangming;ZHAO Feng(School of International Trade and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University)
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
北大核心
2025年第5期75-92,共18页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“人民币国际化应对中美战略竞争的有效性及推进策略研究”(22BGJ025)的资助。
关键词
大国竞争
货币竞争优势
经贸摩擦
人民币国际化
great power competition
monetary competitive advantage
economics&
trade friction
RMB internationalization
