摘要
目的探讨山东省早期梅毒的发病情况和变化趋势,为梅毒的防控提供参考。方法本研究数据来自中国公共卫生科学数据中心,采用joinpoint回归模型分析发病率变化趋势、利用APC模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列的影响效应。结果2006—2020年山东省早期梅毒呈先上升后降低趋势,Ⅰ期、Ⅱ期梅毒的平均年度变化百分比分别为6.02%、6.25%;0~19岁和≥60岁年龄段发病人数占比在不断增加。年龄–时期–队列分析显示,20~24岁年龄组为早期梅毒的发病高峰,Ⅰ期、Ⅱ期梅毒发病率分别为10.47/10万和16.67/10万;随时期的推移发病风险先升高后降低;随着出生队列的不断推移发病风险不断升高,在2006—2010年达到峰值,Ⅰ期、Ⅱ期梅毒RR值分别为6.38和8.58。结论山东省早期梅毒呈先上升后降低趋势,20~24岁年龄组发病风险最高,0~19岁和≥60岁年龄段发病人数占比在不断增加。
Objective To investigate the incidence and trends of early syphilis in Shandong province and provide references for syphilis prevention and control.Methods Data for this study were obtained from the China Public Health Science Data Center.Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends in incidence rates,and age-period-cohort(APC)models were used to analyze the effects of age,period,and birth cohort.Results From 2006 to 2020,the incidence of early syphilis in Shandong province initially increased and then decreased.The average annual percentage change(AAPC)for primary and secondary syphilis was 6.02%and 6.25%,respectively.The proportion of cases in the 0–19 and≥60 age groups has been increasing.Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the 20–24 age group had the highest incidence of early syphilis,with incidence rates of 10.47/100000 and 16.67/100000 for primary and secondary syphilis,respectively.The risk of disease first increased and then decreased over time.With the progression of birth cohorts,the risk of disease continued to increase,peaking in 2006–2010,with relative risks(RR)of 6.38 and 8.58 for primary and secondary syphilis,respectively.Conclusions The incidence of early syphilis in Shandong province showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.The 20–24 age group had the highest risk of disease,and the proportion of cases in the 0–19 and≥60 age groups has been increasing.
作者
陆如建
吴正昊
董宇
蔡新宇
张凤悦
刘洪庆
WU Zhenghao;DONG Yu;CAI Xinyu;ZHANG Fengyue;LIU Hongqing(School of Public Health,Shandong Second Medical University,Weifang 261053,Shandong,China)
出处
《中国公共卫生》
北大核心
2025年第4期477-482,共6页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
国家食品安全风险评估中心2022年度科研联合攻关项目(LH2022GG04)。
