摘要
为了科学合理地将客船人群分配至多个集合站,提高整船的疏散效率,提出了一种基于集合站容量逆向分配的客船疏散策略生成方法。该方法采取“先分配,后选路”的分阶段思路,包括两部分:一是以最小化集合站层疏散时间为目标,构建集合站容量的逆向分配模型,将集合站容量分配至集合站所在层的每个疏散楼梯节点,并用分支定界法求解模型;二是以整船疏散时间最短为目标,构建乘客全局疏散路径分配模型,并利用网络流迭代估算整船疏散时间,为待疏散区域乘客优化路径。设计三种疏散策略对某客滚船进行疏散仿真,结果表明,与经验疏散策略相比,采用所提出的方法生成的疏散策略时,乘客的疏散时间缩短了24%,疏散过程中减少了36次人群方向交叉。
ing the intricate layout into a key structural model that includes assembly stations,evacuation staircase nodes,and designated evacuation areas.Subsequently,a two-stage approach,titled‘allocation first,routing later was devised,comprising two main components.(1)A reverse allocation model for assembly station capacity was developed,focusing on the deck with assembly stations and aiming to minimize evacuation time on that deck.The model assigned assembly station capacities to each evacuation staircase node on the corresponding deck.An integer programming model was formulated and solved using a branch-and-bound algorithm,with the results informing the subsequent planning of passenger evacuation paths.(2)A global evacuation path allocation model for passengers was developed with the goal of minimizing total evacuation time for the entire ship.The ship s evacuation time was iteratively estimated using network flow analysis,and path adjustment rules were implemented to optimize evacuation routes for passengers in designated evacuation areas.To validate the effectiveness of the proposed models and algorithms,three evacuation strategies were designed and simulated for a passenger ship:the shortest-path-first strategy,the experience-based strategy,and the strategy generated by the proposed method.Simulation results indicate that the shortest-path-first strategy led to the longest evacuation time,as it did not initially account for assembly station capacities.This oversight resulted in passenger backtracking during the evacuation process.In contrast,the strategy developed using the proposed method achieved the shortest evacuation time,reducing passenger evacuation duration by 24%and decreasing the number of instances of evacuation direction crossings by 36 compared to the experience-based strategy.Additionally,it eliminated unnecessary movements for 46 passengers.The evacuation strategy generated by the proposed models exhibited superior overall procedural orderliness,offering a novel approach and scientific foundation for developing passenger ship evacuation strategies.
作者
房志明
张萍
余丽萍
肖霞
庄磊
FANG Zhiming;ZHANG Ping;YU Liping;XIAO Xia;ZHUANG Lei(School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;School of Intelligent Emergency Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;Shanghai Rules and Research Institute,China Classification Society,Shanghai 200135,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期2312-2319,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72374141)。
关键词
公共安全
客船疏散
集合站容量
策略优化
逆向分配
仿真试验
public safety
passenger ships evacuation
assembly station capacity
strategy optimization
reverse allocation
simulation experiment
