摘要
洞庭湖区是长江经济带生态文明建设的重要区域。为探究土地利用变化对该区域碳排放量的影响,基于2005—2020年4期遥感影像数据,利用土地利用动态度模型,结合碳排放系数法、对数平均迪氏指数模型和土地利用碳排放风险指数法对洞庭湖区土地利用碳排放时空演变及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1)2005—2020年洞庭湖区不同土地类型转变明显,建设用地和未利用地变化幅度最大,分别为67.26%、-60.09%;草地和水域次之;林地和耕地变化最小。2)研究区净碳排放量呈逐年增加趋势,年增长率为5.50%。其中建设用地为主要碳源,林地是主要的碳汇。研究区碳排放存在明显的地域差异,岳阳市碳排放水平最高,占区域净碳排放总量的66%~79%。洞庭湖区土地利用碳排放压力较大,生态系统碳平衡失调。3)经济发展水平对土地利用碳排放的正向促进作用最大(累积贡献率为340.45%),能源消耗强度是主要的抑制因素(累积贡献率为-239.37%)。4)根据灰色预测模型预测结果,若合理规划土地利用方式并降低能耗,2040年洞庭湖区的土地利用碳排放量可以控制在25.62×10^(6)t,能极大减缓土地利用碳排放增速。
Dongting Lake area is a crucial region for the construction of ecological civilization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.To explore the impact of land use changes on carbon emissions in Dongting Lake area,this study analyzed the temporal variation and spatial distribution of carbon emissions from land use and its influencing factors based on the 4-period remote sensing imagery data from 2005 to 2020.Using the land use dynamic attitude model,which was combined with the carbon emission coefficient method,LMDI factor analysis method and the land use carbon emission risk index method,the study presented the following findings:1)different land types in the Dongting Lake area transformed to each other significantly from 2005 to 2020,with the most significant changes in construction land(67.35%)and unutilized land(-60.09%),followed by grassland and watershed,and the smallest changes in forest land and arable land.2)The net carbon emission showed an increasing trend year by year,with an annual growth rate of 5.50%.Among them,construction land was the main carbon source,and forest land was the main carbon sink.Inter-regional differences in carbon emissions were apparent,with the high value area being Yueyang City,accounting for 66%-79%of the total regional net carbon emissions.The regional land use carbon emission risk pressure was large,and the ecosystem carbon balance is disrupted.3)The level of economic development had the most positive effect on the increase of land use carbon emissions(cumulative contribution rate was 340.45%),and energy consumption intensity was the main inhibitory factor(cumulative contribution rate was-239.37%).4)Based on gray scale prediction model results,if the land use mode was reasonably planned and the energy consumption was reduced,the carbon emissions of land use in Dongting Lake area in 2040 could be controlled in 25.62×10^(6)t,which could greatly slow down the growth rate of land-use carbon emissions.
作者
孙恬
高依晴
王琳琳
戴迪
SUN Tian;GAO Yiqing;WANG Linlin;DAI Di(School of Economic Geography,Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha Hunan 410205;School of Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233030)
出处
《环境污染与防治》
北大核心
2025年第6期150-158,I0008,共10页
Environmental Pollution & Control
基金
湖南省教育厅科研项目(No.22C0688、No.22C0699)
安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题攻关项目(No.2022CX043)
安徽省高校科研计划重点项目(No.2022AH050569)。
