摘要
[目的]通过分析不同气候区自然植被的植被碳储量(VCS)和土壤碳储量(SCS)的变化趋势与环境要素对碳储量变化的驱动机制,以期为研究区制定适应气候变化的植被管理策略提供依据。[方法]通过构建基于LPJ-GUESS模型和随机森林方法的混合模型,模拟1851—2100年中国典型自然植被VCS和SCS的动态变化,结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sen′s斜率估计方法,分析碳储量动态变化与趋势特征。[结果]1)混合模型模拟自然植被的VCS和SCS的决定系数分别为0.83和0.61,均方根误差分别为2.42、3.73 kg/m^(2)(以C计),可准确捕捉生态系统碳动态。2)与历史时期相比,本世纪末VCS,SCS和总碳储量(TCS,即VCS+SCS)在整个研究区分别增加44.8%~88.1%、7.5%~13.4%和10.4%~19.8%,在高原半干旱区增幅最大,不同SSPs气候情景下的增幅表现为SSP1192·a)(以C计)的速率显著上升,SCS变化趋势不显著,TCS在SSP245和SSP585情景下分别以14.6、18.0 g/(m^(2)·a)(以C计)的速率显著上升。4)不同SSPs气候情景下碳储量受环境因素影响的变化程度表现为SSP1192浓度,降水是驱动未来时期中国自然植被碳汇功能增强的关键因子。
[Objective]To analyze the trends of vegetation carbon storage(VCS)and soil carbon storage(SCS)of natural vegetation across different climatic zones and the driving mechanisms of environmental factors on the changes of carbon storage,in order to provide a basis for the development of vegetation management strategies adapted to climate change in the study area.[Methods]By constructing a hybrid model based on the LPJ-GUESS model and the random forest method,the dynamic changes of VCS and SCS of typical natural vegetation in China from 1851 to 2100 were simulated,and the carbon storage dynamics were analyzed by combining the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimation method.[Results]1)The determination coefficients of VCS and SCS of natural vegetation simulated by the hybrid model were 0.83 and 0.61,respectively,and the root mean square errors(RMSEs)were 2.42 and 3.73 kg/m2,respectively,which could accurately capture the ecosystem carbon dynamics.2)Compared to the historical period,VCS,SCS and TCS in the whole study area were excepted to increase by 44.8%-88.1%,7.5%-13.4%,and 10.4%-19.8%by the end of this century,respectively,with the largest increase in the semi-arid plateau region.The increases under different SSPs climate scenarios followed the order of SSP119<SSP245<SSP585.3)Under different SSPs scenarios,VCS of natural vegetation increased significantly at a rate of 4.6-9.7 g/(m2·a),while the trend of changes in SCS was not significant.TCS increased significantly at a rate of 14.6 and 18.0 g/(m2·a)under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively.4)The degree of influence of environmental factors on carbon storage under different SSP scenarios followed the order of SSP119<SSP245<SSP585,with VCS being more sensitive to climate change than SCS.Precipitation was identified as the main driving factor enhancing the carbon sink function of typical natural vegetation in China.[Conclusions]The hybrid model can accurately characterize carbon storage changes.Precipitation is the key factor driving the enhancement of the carbon sink function of natural vegetation across China in the future,compared to temperature and atmospheric CO_(2)concentration.
作者
吴阳
张杰琳
彭守璋
WU Yang;ZHANG Jielin;PENG Shouzhang(The Research Center of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Education,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;State Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)
出处
《水土保持学报》
北大核心
2025年第3期182-190,共9页
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2022QZKK0101)
国家自然科学基金项目(42401338,U2243226,42077451)。
