摘要
近年来,随着页岩气产业的高速发展,页岩气已成为推动中国中长期能源结构调整、助力碳减排进程的关键力量之一。总体看来,中国页岩气产业尚处于勘探早中期阶段,预测页岩气剩余探明技术可采储量,可以为中国页岩气产业的规划和高质量发展提供重要参考。为此,根据中国页岩气产业“贫信息”“少数据”的基础现状特征,结合灰色理论系统预测模型的适用条件,以页岩气新增探明地质储量作为相关因素变量,使用灰色多维度预测模型GM(1.2)首次从宏观角度分析了中国页岩气剩余探明技术可采储量的发展趋势。研究结果表明:①融入弱化缓冲算子能使灰色波形预测模型较为准确地预测未来中国页岩气新增探明地质储量的变化趋势,预测结果揭示中国页岩气新增探明地质储量整体呈现良好增长趋势;②灰色多维度预测模型GM(1.2)的预测结果显示,中国页岩气剩余探明技术可采储量将会在2027年达8679.2×10^(8)m^(3),2030年突破10000×10^(8)m^(3),中国页岩气产业具备高质量发展基础。结论认为,随着“双碳”目标的不断推进,在产业政策支持和勘探开发技术进步的双重作用下,中国页岩气产业仍将保持快速高质量的发展趋势。
With the rapid development of shale gas industry in recent years,shale gas has become one of the key forces to impel China's medium-and long-term energy structure adjustment and facilitate the process of carbon emission reduction.On the whole,China's shale gas industry is still in the early-middle stage of exploration,and the prediction of remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves of shale gas can provide an important reference for the planning and high-quality growth of China's shale gas industry.In view of the current basic characteristics of"lean information"and"insufficient data"of China's shale gas industry,as well as the applicable conditions of gray theory system prediction model,this paper analyzes the development trend of China's remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves of shale gas from the macroscopic perspective for the first time by using the gray multi-dimension prediction model GM(1.2)with the newly proved geological reserves of shale gas as the related factor variable.The following results are obtained.First,the introduction of weakening buffer operator enables the gray waveform prediction model to predict the future changing trend of China's newly proved geological reserves of shale gas more accurately.The prediction results indicate an overall growing trend of China's newly proved geological reserves of shale gas.Second,the prediction results of gray multi-dimension prediction model GM(1.2)show that China's remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves of shale gas will reach 8679.2×10^(8)m^(3)by 2027 and exceed 10000×10^(8)m^(3)by 2030,suggesting that China's shale gas industry has the foundation of high-quality growth.In conclusion,with the continuous efforts for"dual-carbon"goals,China's shale gas industry will remain the development trend of high speed and high quality under the dual effects of industrial policy support and exploration and development technological progress.
作者
胥勇
王艳秋
潘艳
刘文庆
XU Yong;WANG Yanqiu;PAN Yan;LIU Wenqing(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Petroleum University,Daqing,Heilongjiang 163318,China;China NationalPetroleum Corporation,Beijing 100007,China;Downhole Service Company,CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710000,China)
出处
《天然气工业》
北大核心
2025年第5期180-187,共8页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“黑龙江省‘水—能源—粮食’纽带系统耦合协调发展评价与实现路径研究”(编号:21JYB139)。
关键词
页岩气
剩余探明技术可采储量
新增探明地质储量
灰色波形预测
GM(1.2)
Shale gas
Remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves
Newly proved geological reserves
Gray waveform prediction
GM(1.2)
