摘要
在加快构建新发展格局以及推动高质量发展的过程中,人力资本已成为城市间竞争的核心要素。近年来,兰西城市群人口流失严重,人力资本竞争力不足,直接影响到兰西城市群的城市经济韧性。选取兰西城市群中6个典型城市作为研究区域,运用线性混合效应模型探讨2010、2015、2020年人口增减分化对城市经济韧性的影响及作用路径。结果表明:(1)2010—2020年兰西城市群主要城市的城市经济韧性总体上呈上升趋势,且形成了以兰州市和西宁市为核心,其余城市为边缘的“核心-边缘”结构。(2)人口增减分化会直接影响到兰西城市群主要城市的城市经济韧性,人口流入对城市经济韧性具有正外部性。(3)产业结构合理化程度不会改变人口变动对城市经济韧性的影响强度,对于兰西城市群中的人口流失型城市,初期的人口流失在一定程度上可以促进产业结构合理化,但这种产业结构调整模式不具有可持续性。(4)人口变动会影响地方信息化程度,进而在一定程度上影响城市经济韧性,人口数量增加有利于城市信息化程度提高,进而增强了城市经济韧性。基于研究结论,应从推动区域协调发展、重视人力资本积累、加快产业结构转型升级、重视人口政策与信息化建设的协同推进等方面提升兰西城市群主要城市的城市经济韧性。
As China accelerates the construction of new development models and advances high-quality development,human capital has become a key driver of intercity competitiveness.In recent years,the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration has experienced significant population decline and insufficient human capital competitiveness,which have directly weakened its urban economic resilience.This study examines six representative cities within the Lanzhou-Xining(Lanxi)urban agglomeration,employing a linear mixed-effects model to analyze the effects and mechanisms of differentiated population growth and decline on urban economic resilience in 2010,2015,and 2020.The findings reveal the following characteristics of urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.(1)Between 2010 and 2020,urban economic resilience generally increased across the Lanxi region,forming a“core-edge”structure,with Lanzhou City and Xining City at the core and other cities at the periphery.(2)Variations in population growth significantly affected urban economic resilience,with population inflows exerting positive externalities on regional resilience.(3)The rationalization of the industrial structure did not moderate the impact of population change on urban economic resilience.In cities experiencing population loss,initial declines facilitated some degree of industrial restructuring;however,this mode of adjustment was not sustainable over time.(4)Population change also influenced the level of local informatization,which in turn affected urban economic resilience.Population growth supported the development of urban informatization,thereby strengthening urban economic resilience.Based on these findings,it is recommended to promote coordinated regional development,enhance human capital accumulation,accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading,and advance population policy in tandem with informatization initiatives to improve the economic resilience of major cities in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.
作者
王逸菲
孔德臻
罗宇煊
毛锦凰
王梅梅
WANG Yifei;KONG Dezhen;LUO Yuxuan;MAO Jinhuang;WANG Meimei(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;College of Economics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;Intelligent Laboratory for Humanistic Environment Data of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)
出处
《干旱区地理》
北大核心
2025年第6期1020-1030,共11页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金(42201198)
自然资源部陆表系统与人地关系重点实验室开放基金(LBXT2023YB09)资助。
关键词
人口变动
城市经济韧性
影响路径
兰西城市群
population change
urban economic resilience
influence pathways
Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration
