摘要
在全球经济格局深度调整与贸易保护主义抬头、我国着力提振消费以扩大内需的背景下,探究如何释放地方政府专项债对居民消费的拉动效应具有重要现实意义。本文以我国2015—2023年省级面板数据为样本,综合运用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型等实证方法,研究地方政府专项债对居民消费的影响及机理。研究发现:专项债显著提高居民消费水平,主要促进交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗保健等发展型消费。就影响机制来看,主要通过拉动就业改善收入、优化公共服务引导消费预期发挥作用,而完善消费基础设施路径效应尚不够显著。异质性分析发现,专项债促进消费效应在低收入以及消费类专项债投入占比高的地区更显著。最后,本文建议优化专项债规模与投向结构、聚焦发展型消费领域、打通“基础设施—消费场景”路径、实施区域差异化政策并培育消费新动能构建长效协同机制,以充分释放专项债扩内需效能。
Against the backdrop of deep adjustments in the global economic landscape and the rise of trade protectionism,as well as China's efforts to boost consumption and expand domestic demand,exploring how to release local government special bonds to stimulate household consumption has important practical significance.This article takes provincial panel data from 2015 to 2023 in China as a sample,and comprehensively uses empirical methods such as two-way fixed effects model and mediation effect model to study the impact and mechanism of local government special bonds on residents'consumption.Research has found that special bonds significantly improve residents'consumption levels,mainly promoting development oriented consumption in areas such as transportation and communication,education,culture,entertainment,and healthcare.In terms of the impact mechanism,it mainly plays a role by driving employment to improve income and optimizing public services to guide consumption expectations,while the path effect of improving consumption infrastructure has not been significant yet.Heterogeneity analysis found that the promotion effect of special bonds on consumption is more significant in low-income and regions with a higher proportion of investment in consumer special bonds.Finally,this article suggests optimizing the scale and investment structure of special bonds,focusing on the development oriented consumption sector,opening up the"infrastructure consumption scenario"path,implementing regional differentiated policies and cultivating new consumption drivers,and building a long-term collaborative mechanism to fully unleash the effectiveness of special bonds in expanding domestic demand.
作者
徐凯航
缪小林
王铸林
Xu Kaihang;Miao Xiaolin;Wang Zhulin
出处
《财政科学》
2025年第4期53-66,共14页
Fiscal Science
基金
研究阐释党的二十届三中全会精神国家社科基金重大专项项目“政府债务管理的长效机制和风险防范研究”(项目编号:24ZDA041)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“政府—企业—金融协同治理下的专项债财政政策效能提升研究”(项目编号:23YJA790057)
云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“分类治理与分地管理结合下的地方政府隐性债务风险防范体系研究”(项目编号:2024Y492)。
关键词
专项债
居民消费
居民收入
消费预期
消费环境
Special Bonds
Resident Consumption
Resident Income
Consumption Expectations
Consumption Environment
