摘要
人口高质量发展对于推动中国式现代化目标实现意义重大。从人口素质、人口总量、人口区域结构、人口与资源环境协调四个维度阐释人口高质量发展内涵,构建并优化综合评价指标体系,采用主客观结合赋权法测算中国人口高质量发展水平,运用基尼系数分析区域差异。研究发现:2010—2021年中国人口高质量发展水平整体呈波动上行趋势,2021年有所下降,波动幅度较小,但地区间差异较大;人口素质、资源环境协调及区域结构指数波动上升,人口总量指数加速下行;对人口高质量发展水平均值的贡献率最高的分指数为人口与资源环境,但2020年起人口素质的贡献超越了人口总量;中国人口高质量发展水平差异波动上行,不同板块区域内差异和区域间差异明显。据此提出通过抑制人口总量指数加速下行,发挥人口素质的积极作用,持续推动人口与资源环境协调发展,优化人口区域结构。
High-quality population development is crucial to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and serves as an important pillar for Chinese-style modernization.This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for high-quality population development from four dimensions:population quality,total population,regional population structure,and coordination between population and resources/environment.Using a combined subjective-objective weighting method,we measure China’s high-quality population development level,examine its regional differences,and employ the Gini coefficient to reveal the dynamic evolution characteristics of regional disparities in high-quality population development.The research findings indicate that:From 2010 to 2021,China’s high-quality population development level exhibits a fluctuating upward trend,with a slight decline in 2021 and relatively low volatility;Significant regional disparities exist in high-quality population development levels,with Guangdong,Beijing,and Zhejiang ranking as the top three provinces;The sub-indexes for population quality and regional population structure show upward trends,while the total population index displays an accelerating downward trend,and the population-resource-environment coordination index demonstrates a fluctuating upward trend;The contribution rate to high-quality population development level from highest to lowest is:population-resource-environment coordination,regional population structure,total population,and population quality—though from 2020 onwards,the contribution of population quality exceeds that of total population;Regional contributions of high-quality population development sub-indices vary considerably;The four major regions(Eastern,Central,Northeastern,and Western)show relatively consistent trends in high-quality population development levels,all displaying fluctuating upward trends with low volatility—with the Eastern region maintaining the highest level,while Central,Northeastern,and Western regions show intertwining patterns;The four economic belts all demonstrate fluctuating upward trends in high-quality population development levels with a slight decline in 2021,low volatility,and small differences—ranking from highest to lowest:21st Century Maritime Silk Road,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Economic Belt,and Silk Road Economic Belt;The overall regional disparity in China’s population development levels shows a fluctuating upward trend with very small amplitude is very small;Among the four major regions,the Eastern region has the highest mean Gini coefficient,followed by the Western,Northeastern,and Central regions in descending order;Among the four economic belts,the Yangtze River Economic Belt has the highest mean Gini coefficient,followed by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Silk Road Economic Belt,and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt in descending order;Between the four major regions,the Eastern-Western regional pair has the highest mean Gini coefficient,followed in descending order by:Northeastern-Western,Central-Western,Eastern-Central,Eastern-Northeastern,and Central-Northeastern pairs;Between the four economic belts,the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road-Silk Road Economic Belt pair has the highest mean Gini coefficient,followed in descending order by:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Silk Road Economic Belt,Yangtze River Economic Belt-Maritime Silk Road,Yangtze River Economic Belt-Silk Road Economic Belt,Yangtze River Economic Belt-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Maritime Silk Road pairs;Spatial differences in high-quality population development levels primarily stem from inter-regional disparities,with intra-regional differences as a secondary factor.
作者
袁晓玲
韩宝晶
张江洋
张卫航
YUAN Xiaoling;HAN Baojing;ZHANG Jiangyang;ZHANG Weihang(School of Economics and Finance,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,China;Shaanxi Province Economic High Quality Development Soft Science Research Base,Xi’an 710061,China;School of Management,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China;Ankang Branch,Chang’an Bank Co.,Ltd.Ankang 725000,China)
出处
《当代经济科学》
北大核心
2025年第3期130-146,共17页
Modern Economic Science
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“促进城市高质量建设发展的长效机制研究”(20JZD012)。
关键词
人口高质量发展
区域差异
人口素质
人口总量
人口区域结构
人口与资源环境协调
基尼系数
high-quality population development level
regional differences
population quality
total population
population regional structure
cooordination between population,resources,and enviorment
Gini index
