摘要
针对目前已有的小行星碰撞监测系统之间结论不一致的现状,研究了变化线碰撞监测系统所用到的线性近似方法,得出此方法获得的轨道分布相对于理论轨道分布的偏离随着轨道传播时间增加而逐渐显著的结论.使用蒙特卡洛方法计算了6个小行星实例的碰撞概率,与已有的蒙特卡洛碰撞监测系统的结果比较,差别最大为2.1倍标准差.对小行星2020 VV在2056年10月内的碰撞样本进行了细致分析,描绘了碰撞样本随时间和空间的分布图像,获得了和已有的碰撞监测系统一致的结论.关于不同碰撞监测系统间的比较,得出的结论是蒙特卡洛碰撞监测系统和变化线碰撞监测系统目前各有优劣:前者不会引入线性近似方法带来的误差,但计算成本高;后者所用到的线性近似方法将带来误差,但可以找出一些碰撞概率低的、可能会被前者遗漏的虚拟碰撞源,并且计算成本相对较低.
In view of the current situation of inconsistent conclusions between existing asteroid impact monitoring systems,the linear approximation method used in the change line impact monitoring system was studied,and the conclusion that the deviation of the orbit distribution relative to the theoretical orbit distribution obtained by this method gradually became significant as the orbit propagation time increased.The impact probability of 6 asteroid instances was calculated using the Monte Carlo method.Compared with the results of the existing Monte Carlo impact monitoring system,the maximum difference is 2.1 times the standard deviation.The impact samples of asteroid 2020 VV in October 2056 are analyzed in detail,and the distribution of impact samples with time and space is depicted,and the conclusions are consistent with those of existing impact monitoring systems.As for the comparison between the different impact monitoring systems,it is concluded that the Monte Carlo impact monitoring system and the change line impact monitoring system currently have their own advantages and disadvantages:the former does not introduce the error caused by the linear approximation method,but the computational cost is high.The linear approximation method used in the latter will bring errors,but it can find some virtual impact sources with low impact probability that may be missed by the former,and the computational cost is relatively low.
作者
郑航
朱青峰
宋叶志
李旭志
徐小慧
邱锦盛
赵峻涵
ZHENG Hang;ZHU Qing-feng;SONG Ye-zhi;LI Xu-zhi;XU Xiao-hui;QIU Jin-sheng;ZHAO Jun-han(CAS Key Laboratory for Research in Galaxies and Cosmology,Department of Astronomy,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026;School of Astronomy and Space Sciences,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026;Deep Space Exploration Laboratory,Hefei 230088;Shanghai Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai 200030)
出处
《天文学报》
北大核心
2025年第3期69-77,共9页
Acta Astronomica Sinica
基金
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDB 41000000)资助。
关键词
小行星:近地小行星碰撞监测
天体测量学与天体力学
方法:数据分析
minor planets
asteroids:near-Earth asteroids impact monitoring
astrometry and celestial mechanics
methods:data analysis
