摘要
在历史上,每一次产业革命都会改变产业技术与人之间的特定关系,即产人关系。随着产人关系的演进,产业体系就业吸收规模、就业吸收质量和劳动力参与分配方式三个维度的变化形成了新产业革命下中国人口红利的消退路径。首先,新产业革命的劳动力排出效应超过吸收效应,削弱了人口红利中的劳动力“数量优势”。其次,生产过程智能化使得对劳动力素质的要求从体力劳动转向体脑结合,并进一步提升到更高的脑力要求,放宽了人口红利中的劳动力“适龄特质”。再次,劳动力参与分配的方式从超额劳动时间的占有转向超额劳动技能和知识价值的占有,导致人口红利中“低用工成本效益”的消失。在此背景下,为适应现代产业体系向以人类创造力为主导的智能技术部门演进的必然趋势,应将人口政策重心从数量转向质量。同时,以底线思维构建促进共同富裕的政策组合,提升社会消费能力,强化经济增长的内在动力。
This study reinterprets China's demographic dividend decline through the lens of human-industrial dynamics during the new industrial revolution,identifying three interlinked pathways of change.Firstly,the displacement of labor by intelligent technologies now outpaces absorption,eroding the"quantity advantage"as automation reduces demand for traditional manual workforces.Secondly,the industrial system's evolving requirements-from physical labor to neuro-cognitive adaptability-relax age-related constraints,prioritizing skills over chronological"age-appropriateness."Thirdly,income distribution shifts from time-based exploitation to knowledge/skill capital ownership,invalidating"low-cost labor efficiency."To navigate this transition,the authors advocate a dual-policy framework:transitioning demographic strategies from quantity-centric planning to quality-driven STEM education and lifelong learning ecosystems,while fostering inclusive growth through progressive taxation and social consumption enhancement.This recalibration aims to redefine human capital valuation beyond demographic arithmetic,ensuring China's economic resilience in an era where industrial evolution hinges on human creativity rather than demographic arithmetic.
作者
卢俊杰
赵儒煜
LU Jun-jie;ZHAO Ru-yu
出处
《江苏师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
2025年第3期94-111,124,共19页
Journal of Jiangsu Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition
基金
浙江省哲学社会科学规划“省市合作”专项项目“数字经济时代我国城市青年人口流动网络特征、演化及启示”(项目编号:24SSHZ052YB)阶段性研究成果。
关键词
产人关系
新产业革命
人口红利
人口政策
demographic dividend
human-industrial dynamics
intelligent automation
labor market transition
policy innovation
