摘要
地下水是干旱与半干旱地区极其珍贵的自然资源,地下水动态的精准预测与评估关乎着地下水资源的有效保护与合理利用。本研究根据西安市2010~2020年地下水位监测数据,系统分析了西安市地下水位年际、年内动态变化特征,探究了影响地下水位动态的主要因素,通过SPSS对影响地下水位动态的降水量和开采量两个主要因素进行相关性分析,并基于GM(1,1)灰度预测模型和BP神经网络模型对地下水位变动趋势进行了预测。结果表明:(1)2010~2016年,地下水位整体上呈下降趋势,2016~2020年间,得益于地下水压采和供水设施的不断优化完善,地下水位呈回升趋势。(2)降水和人为开采均对西安市地下水位变动具有显著影响;地下水位埋深是决定受降水影响程度的关键因素,其中河漫滩地区最为敏感,阶地次之,黄土塬区较弱。地下水开采量与地下水位埋深具有更强的相关性。这凸显了其在调控地下水位动态变化中的主导地位。(3)地下水位预测结果显示,随着地下水开采量呈现出逐年下降的趋势,研究区地下水整体处于波动上升趋势。本研究对西安市地下水动态的影响因素及预测趋势进行了研究,对地下水资源管理和可持续发展具有重要参考价值。
Groundwater is exteremely important in arid and semiarid regions,and the core of its effective pro-tection and rational utilization lies in accurate prediction and evaluation of groundwater dynamics,based on which protection,utilization,and planning strategies are formulated.Based on groundwater level monitoring da-ta from 2010 to 2020 in Xi'an City,this study systematically analyzed the inter-annual and intra-annual dynamic changes in groundwater levels,investigated the main factors influencing groundwater dynamics,and conducted a correlation analysis using SPSS on the two primary factors affecting groundwater dynamics:precipitation and extraction volume.Furthermore,the study utilized the GM(1,1)grey prediction model and the BP neural net-work model to forecast the trend of groundwater level changes.The results indicate that:①From 2010 to 2016,the groundwater level showed an overall decreasing trend.However,from 2016 to 2020,due to the yearly reduc-tion in extraction volume and continuous optimization and improvement of water supply facilities,the ground-water level exhibited a rising trend.②Both precipitation and human extraction significantly impact the ground-water level fluctuations in Xi'an.The depth of the groundwater level is a crucial factor determining the degree of influence from precipitation,with river floodplains being the most sensitive,followed by terraces,and loess plateaus showing the weakest response.The correlation between groundwater extraction volume and groundwa-ter depth is stronger,highlighting its dominant role in regulating groundwater level dynamics.③Groundwater level predictions suggest that as groundwater extraction continues to decline annually,the overall groundwater in the study area is on a fluctuating upward trend.This study has conducted research on the influencing factors and prediction trends of groundwater dynamics in Xi'an,which has important reference value for groundwater re-source management and sustainable development.
作者
李培月
梁豪
杨俊岩
田艳
寇晓梅
LI Peiyue;LIANG Hao;YANG Junyan;TIAN Yan;KOU Xiaomei(PowerChina Sinohydro Bureau 3 Co.,LTD.,Xi’an 710024,Shaanxi,China;School of Water and Environment,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region of the Ministry of Education,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology and Water Security in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of the Ministry of Water Resources,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,Shaanxi,China;PowerChina Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi’an 710065,Shaanxi,China)
出处
《西北地质》
北大核心
2025年第3期236-245,共10页
Northwestern Geology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目课题“土壤-地下水污染时空演化规律及主控因子”(2023YFC3706901)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“大型灌区地下水多场协同作用下典型农业污染物迁移转化机制研究”(42472316)联合资助。
关键词
地下水位动态
主导因素
回归分析
灰色模型
BP神经网络预测
groundwater level dynamics
dominant factors
regression analysis
grey model
BP neural net-work prediction
