摘要
在全球利率联动性不断提高的背景下,国际利率波动对中国物价的影响不容忽视,文章在对国际利率对物价的传导效应进行系统的理论归纳和总结的基础上,构建符合中国经济实践的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,探讨了国际利率波动对中国物价的影响,并对比了稳定物价的相关措施效果。研究表明:国际利率的波动会导致国内物价同方向变动,特别是当国际利率波动超过15%时,物价波动可能会超过2022年《政府工作报告》中设定的物价目标2.5%。此外,国际利率波动在供给侧对物价产生的影响比需求侧更为显著。
Under the background of increasing global interest rate linkage,the impact of international interest rate fluctuation on China’s prices cannot be ignored.This paper is based on the systematic theoretical induction and summary of the transmission effect of international interest rates on prices to construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that conforms to China’s economic practice,then explores the impact of international interest rate fluctuation on China’s prices,and finally compares the relevant measures to stabilize prices.The results show that fluctuations in international interest rates lead to changes in domestic prices in the same direction,especially when the fluctuations in international interest rates exceed 15%;the price fluctuations may exceed the price target of 2.5%set in the 2022 Government Work Report.In addition,international interest rate fluctuations have a more significant impact on prices on the supply side than on the demand side.
作者
毛剑玮
Mao Jianwei(School of Economics,Shanxi Vocational University of Engineering Science and Technology,Jinzhong Shanxi 030000,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
北大核心
2025年第8期142-147,共6页
Statistics & Decision
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(22ATJ006)
国家社会科学基金青年项目(22CTJ014)
山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(2024W205)。
关键词
国际利率
物价
冲击效应
DSGE模型
international interest rate
price
shock effect
DSGE model
