摘要
针对北川河流域未来土地利用和气候变化下的径流响应问题,探讨水资源保护和生态修复的有效策略,采用SWAT模型,通过设置土地利用变化为土地利用维持现状、城市快速发展并保护耕地、城市发展且退耕还林还草3种情景,气候变化为二氧化碳中等排放和高排放2种情景,定量分析了北川河流域径流在不同土地利用和气候变化情景下的响应。流域站点的模拟相关系数R2为0.68,纳什效率系数为0.65,表明该模型在北川河流域具有较好的适用性。在仅考虑土地利用或气候变化的情景模拟中,2020—2050年的流域多年平均径流量在土地利用维持现状情景、城市快速发展并保护耕地情景下分别增加1.92%和1.82%,在城市发展且退耕还林还草情景下减少18.45%;在二氧化碳中等排放和高排放的气候变化情景下,流域多年平均径流量减少15.37%和增加2.82%。在综合考虑土地利用和气候变化的情景模拟中,各情景下的多年平均径流量均呈减少趋势,幅度为23.89%~27.58%,主要分布在流域下游城区。未来30 a内,北川河流域的径流将会在一定程度上减少。在未来水资源保护与生态修复中,应对北川河流域气候变化趋势加强关注,及时采取相应的调控措施,在流域上游进行退耕还林还草,并控制下游城市与耕地扩张,维持流域径流在利于社会发展、生态系统稳定的水平上。
To address the issue of runoff response under future land use and climate change scenarios in the Beichuan River Basin,this study explores effective strategies for water resource protection and ecological restoration.Using the SWAT model,this study quantitatively analyzed the runoff response in the Beichuan River Basin under different land use and climate change scenarios.Three land use scenarios were set:maintaining the current land use,rapid urban development while protecting farmland,and urban development with the conversion of farmland to forest and grassland.For climate change,two scenarios were considered:medium and high CO2 emissions.The model accuracy results showed correlation coefficient(R~2)of 0.68 and Nash efficiency coefficient of 0.65,indicating that the model has good applicability in the Beichuan River Basin.In scenarios considering only land use or climate change,the average annual runoff from 2020 to 2050 was analyzed.The results indicate that under the scenarios of maintaining the current land use,and rapid urban development while protecting farmland,the average annual runoff increased by 1.92%and 1.82%respectively.Under the scenario of urban development coupled with reforestation and grassland restoration,the average annual runoff decreased by 18.45%.Furthermore,under the climate change scenarios of moderate and high CO_2 emissions,the average annual runoff decreased by 15.37%and increased by 2.82%respectively.When considering the combined impact of land use and climate change,the average annual runoff under each scenario showed a decreasing trend,with a range of 23.89%~27.58%,mainly distributed in the downstream urban area of the basin.Over the next 30 years,the runoff in the Beichuan River basin is expected to decrease to some extent.In future water resource protection and ecological restoration efforts,it is crucial to closely monitor the trends in climate change within the Beichuan River basin and promptly implement appropriate regulatory measures.Reforestation and grassland restoration should be prioritized in the upper reaches of the basin,while controlling the expansion of urban areas and farmland in the downstream regions.These measures will help maintain the runoff at levels conducive to social development and the stability of the ecosystem.
作者
万成瑞
乔冠宇
郭丰浩
王圣
于茹月
孙忠祥
黄元仿
WAN Chengrui;QIAO Guanyu;GUO Fenghao;WANG Sheng;YU Ruyue;SUN Zhongxiang;HUANG Yuanfang(College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation(NorthChina)of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100193,China;China Agricultural Museum,Beijing 100125,China)
出处
《测绘科学》
北大核心
2025年第1期152-159,共8页
Science of Surveying and Mapping
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(U20A20115)。
