摘要
目的分析1992—2021年中国肺癌疾病负担的趋势变化,以及年龄、时期和队列效应对其影响,为制定防治策略提供数据支持。方法从全球疾病负担(Global burden of disease,GBD)2021数据库获取1992—2021年中国肺癌的相关数据。使用Join point回归模型分析1992—2021年肺癌标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALY率的趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄、时期和队列效应对发病率和死亡率的影响,并使用自回归滑动平均(Autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)模型预测2022—2030年中国肺癌的标化发病率和标化死亡率趋势。结果1992—2021年,中国肺癌发病和死亡负担显著增加,肺癌标化发病率和标化死亡率分别上升了32.16%和11.95%。1992—2021年,全人群的肺癌标化发病率和标化死亡率的平均年度百分比变化均呈上升趋势。年龄的发病效应风险随年龄的增加呈现上升趋势,年龄的死亡效应随年龄增加呈现下降趋势。时期的发病效应随年份的增加呈现逐渐上升,死亡效应呈现先上升后下降趋势。队列的发病效应和死亡效应均呈现先上升后下降趋势。ARIMA(0,1,1)模型预测结果显示,2022—2030年,肺癌标化发病率将逐年上升,而标化死亡率基本保持不变。结论1992—2021年中国肺癌的标化发病率和标化死亡率呈上升趋势,预测2022—2030年肺癌发病率将呈现逐年上升趋势。中国肺癌的防控仍面临严峻挑战,对不同人群应采取不同防控措施将有助于减轻肺癌患者疾病负担。
Objective To analyze the trends in lung cancer burden in China from 1992 to 2021,and to assess the impact of age,period,and cohort effects on these trends,providing data support for formulating prevention and control strategies.Methods Data on lung cancer in China for 1992-2021 were obtained from the Global burden of disease(GBD)2021 database.Join point regression model was used to analyze the trend of standardized incidence,standardized mortality and standardized DALY rate of lung cancer from 1992 to 2021.An age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the effects of age,period and cohort effects on morbidity and mortality,and Autoregressive integrated moving average model was used.The ARIMA model predicts trends in standardized incidence and mortality of lung cancer in China from 2022 to 2030.Results From 1992 to 2021,the incidence and death burden of lung cancer in China has increased significantly,with the standardized incidence and mortality of lung cancer increasing by 32.16%and 11.95%,respectively.From 1992 to 2021,the average annual percentage changes in the standardized incidence and standardized mortality of lung cancer in the whole population showed an increasing trend.The morbidity risk of age increased with the increase of age,and the death effect of age decreased with the increase of age.The morbidity effect increased gradually with the increase of years,and the death effect increased first and then decreased.The morbidity and mortality effects of the cohort increased first and then decreased.Conclusion The standardized incidence and mortality of lung cancer in China showed an increasing trend from 1992 to 2021,and it is predicted that the incidence of lung cancer will show an increasing trend year by year from 2022 to 2030.The prevention and control of lung cancer in China still faces severe challenges,and different prevention and control measures for different groups of people will help reduce the disease burden of lung cancer patients.
作者
张爱岐
李蕙颖
岱德羽
ZHANG Aiqi;LI Huiying;DAI Deyu(Emergency Internal Medicine,The Affiliated First Hospital of Harbin Medical University,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150001,China;Department of Pathology,Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital;DivisionⅡ,Respiratory and Critical Medicine Department,The Affiliated First Hospital of Harbin Medical University,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150001,China)
出处
《临床肺科杂志》
2025年第5期649-655,共7页
Journal of Clinical Pulmonary Medicine
