摘要
本文创新地将广义经济复杂度指数与新经济复杂度指数相结合,测度了“一带一路”沿线各国的经济复杂度,并将其应用于分析沿线国家进口贸易的影响因素。研究结果表明:“一带一路”沿线国家之间、区域之间以及各贸易群体之间的经济复杂度存在显著差异。相对比其他经济体,“一带一路”经济体中贸易国经济复杂度的提升、市场规模的扩大、对外开放的扩张、信息技术的进步以及文化认同度的提高均有助于促进进口贸易;“一带一路”沿线国家新兴经济体居多,更注重复杂产品的进口,大国依旧是推动贸易的“龙头”,走出去也是促进进口贸易的重要因素;然而,“一带一路”沿线国家间市场壁垒较高,依然有很大的改进空间。政策建议:完善“一带一路”多边合作机制、加强“一带一路”基础建设、改善中国对欧洲的进口贸易产业结构、继续夯实“一带一路”沿线国家间的贸易关系基础。
The paper innovatively combines the Generalized Economic Complexity Index with the New Economic Complexity Index to measure the economic complexity of countries along"the Belt and Road",and applies it to analyze the influencing factors of import trade of countries along"the Belt and Road".The results show that there are significant differences in economic complexity among countries,regions and trade groups along"the Belt and Road".Compared with other economies,the increase of the economic complexity of the trading countries,the expansion of market size,the expansion of opening up,the progress of information technology and the improvement of cultural identity in"the Belt and Road"economies are all conducive to promoting import trade;The countries along the"the Belt and Road"have a large number of emerging economies,and pay more attention to the import of complex products;Big countries are still the"leaders"in promoting trade,and going out is also an important factor in promoting import trade;However,the market barriers among the"the Belt and Road"countries are high,and there is still much room for improvement.Policy suggestions:improve the multilateral cooperation mechanism of"the Belt and Road",strengthen the infrastructure of"the Belt and Road",improve the industrial structure of China's import trade with Europe,and continue to consolidate the basis of trade relations between countries along"the Belt and Road".
作者
唐晓彬
张岩
TANG Xiao-bin;ZHANG Yan(School of Statistics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China)
出处
《数理统计与管理》
北大核心
2025年第2期329-347,共19页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD164)。
