摘要
在全球经济一体化进程中,美国货币政策对中国贸易的溢出效应一直是学术界关注的焦点,尤其在2008年全球金融危机之后,美国货币政策多次转向对中国贸易产生了深远影响。以宏观政策取向一致性视角为切入点,聚焦金融与贸易一体化,构建开放经济下的两国DSGE模型研究美国货币政策对中国贸易的影响。研究表明:与传统只考虑贸易视角不同的是,在金融与贸易一体化框架下美国宽松货币政策的溢出效应呈现模糊性和乘数效应,最终导致中国贸易指标产生正向偏离;美国货币政策主要通过金融间接渠道和居民消费直接渠道双重传导,聚焦作用于负债型企业部门;因此,结合美国退出量化宽松货币政策和拟取消对华贸易制裁的双重预期现实,在宏观政策取向一致性视角下,论证贸易与货币政策协同规则将显著改善中国的福利水平。基于此,从宏观政策取向一致性视角提出进一步扩大对外开放进程中,控制与防范美国货币政策转向引发中国贸易风险的政策建议。
In the context of global economic integration,the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy on China's trade have consistently drawn academic attention,particularly following the 2008 global financial crisis when multiple shifts in U.S.monetary policy profoundly impacted China's trade.This study innovatively adopts a macro policy alignment perspective,focusing on the integration of finance and trade,and constructs a two-country DSGE model within an open economy framework to examine the effects of U.S.monetary policy on China's trade.The research reveals that,unlike traditional approaches that primarily consider trade alone,the spillover effects of U.S.expansionary monetary policy within a framework of financial and trade integration show ambiguity and multiplier effects,ultimately leading to a positive deviation in China's trade indicators.U.S.monetary policy is primarily transmitted through both indirect financial channels and direct consumer channels,with a focus on debt-laden corporate sectors.Consequently,given the dual expectations of the U.S.potentially ending quantitative easing and considering the lifting of trade sanctions against China,the analysis suggests that aligning trade and monetary policy coordination rules would significantly enhance China's welfare.Based on these findings,policy recommendations are put forward from a macro policy alignment perspective,i.e.,we should control and prevent China's trade risks arising from the U.S.monetary policy shifts in China's process of further opening up to the outside world.
作者
严佳佳
梁英豪
Yan Jiajia;Liang Yinghao(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou,Fujian,350108)
出处
《福州大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
2025年第1期60-73,170,171,共16页
Journal of Fuzhou University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“金融扩大开放格局下货币政策与宏观审慎政策有效协调研究”(20BJY234)。
