摘要
在中美战略博弈态势下,特别是美国拜登政府以来,美日同盟一度被冠以“史上最紧密的同盟”之名。美日在政治领域升级为“全球伙伴关系”,在安全领域强调对华威慑,强化经济安全同盟和“价值观同盟”属性,形成以美日同盟为核心的“网格同盟体系”。在重视美日同盟的同时,“退群”等美国外交政策突变引发日本担忧。美国囿于内政问题在对外政策与同盟关系上表现出混乱与乏力,现实矛盾使美日同盟的转向产生结构性张力。特朗普再度执政及石破茂的上台令日本政局出现“自由派”回归的倾向,“石特关系”的演进在加深日本“同盟困境”的同时将为东亚秩序带来更多不确定性。
Under the strategic game situation between China and the United States,the USJapan alliance under the Biden administration was once named“the closest alliance in history”.The US and Japan have upgraded the“global partnership”in the political field,emphasized deterrence against China in the security arena,and strengthened the attributes of the economic security alliance and the values alliance,so that cooperation between the two countries can be extended to a wider range of areas,making the US-Japan alliance at the center of the“alliance network”.Under such circumstances,the security situation in East Asia tends to deteriorate.The security dilemma is aggravated,and the possibility of the outbreak of episodic conflicts is on the rise.In the mutual positioning of the alliance,the United States takes Japan as“the top ally”.Japan attaches great importance to the US-Japan alliance and,at the same time,regards the United States as a“troubling leader”.The“withdrawal”of US in international affairs and other sudden changes in US foreign policy have also caused deep concern in Japan.The US is confined to domestic issues in foreign policy and alliance management showed confusion and weakness.The reality of the contradiction of the US-Japan alliance turned to produce a structural tension.As Trump returns to power,Shigeru Ishiba’s rise to power has led to a tendency for the return of“liberals”to Japan’s political situation.The evolution of the“Ishiba-Trump relationship”has deepened Japan’s“alliance dilemma”and brought more uncertainty to the East Asian order,with the possibility of security risk spillover.In that context,China can play the role of“initiative diplomacy”in the regulation of the weaponization of AI,so as to reach a maximum consensus with the US and Japan.
作者
洪云鑫
黎开朗
华浩男
HONG Yunxin;LI Kailang;HUA Haonan
出处
《东北亚学刊》
2025年第2期56-77,146,共23页
Journal of Northeast Asia Studies
基金
浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地浙江工商大学东亚研究院课题(24JDDYZX04)
上海日本研究交流中心2024年度专项课题(SJSC202405)
上海外国语大学上海全球治理与区域国别研究院开放课题(2023ktq006)。
关键词
中美战略博弈
美日同盟
同盟困境
区域安全
Sino-US strategic game
US-Japan alliance
alliance dilemma
regional security
