摘要
目的 构建与验证晚期胃癌化疗患者预后不良的预测模型。方法 选择我院2021年6月至2023年6月期间121例接受化疗的晚期胃癌患者作为研究对象,持续观察随访1年,根据随访情况将患者分为预后良好组、预后不良组,经Cox回归分析探讨晚期胃癌化疗患者预后不良的影响因素,绘制列线图构建预后不良预测模型并验证预测性能。结果 121例患者的预后不良率为28.10%(34/121)。KM法绘制生存曲线显示,34例病死患者的平均生存时间为(7.97±1.14)个月。Cox回归分析显示,年龄> 60岁、 TNM分期Ⅳ期、 ECOG评分2~3分、肝转移可能是晚期胃癌患者化疗预后不良的影响因素(P <0.05)。列入影响因素构建预后不良预测模型,该模型的区分度、准确度良好。结论 年龄>60岁、 TNM分期Ⅳ期、 ECOG评分2~3分、肝转移是影响晚期胃癌化疗患者预后的关键因素;该预测模型可为临床个体化治疗和预后评估提供重要参考。
Objective To construct and validate a predictive model for poor prognosis of patients with advanced gastric cancer underwent chemotherapy.Methods 121 patients with advanced gastric cancer who received chemotherapy in our hospital from June 2021 to June 2023 were selected as the research subjects.They were continuously observed and followed up for 1 year.Based on the follow-up results,the patients were divided into the good prognosis group and the poor prognosis group.Cox regression analysis was used to identify the influencing factors of poor prognosis in patients with advanced gastric cancer underwent chemotherapy.The column chart was drawn to construct a poor prognosis prediction model and its predictive performance was verified.Results The poor prognosis rate of 121 patients was 28.10%(34/121).The survival curve drawn by KM method showed that the average survival time of 34 deceased patients was(7.97±1.14)months.Cox regression analysis showed that age>60 years old,TNM stageⅣ,ECOG score 2~3 points,and liver metastasis may be factors influencing poor chemotherapy prognosis in patients with advanced gastric cancer(P<0.05).The predictive model for poor prognosis constructed by including influencing factors had good discrimination and accuracy.Conclusions Age>60 years old,TNM stageⅣ,ECOG score 2~3 points and liver metastasis are the key factors influencing the prognosis of patients with advanced gastric cancer underwent chemotherapy.The predictive model can provide an important reference for clinical individualized treatment and prognosis evaluation.
作者
江明之
熊超
曾灵芝
高瑞晨
JIANG Mingzhi;XIONG Chao;ZENG Lingzhi;GAO Ruichen(1^(st) Department of Oncology,Jiujiang First People's Hospital,Jiujiang 332000,China)
出处
《临床医学工程》
2025年第3期233-236,共4页
Clinical Medicine & Engineering
关键词
晚期胃癌
化疗
预测模型
预后
Advanced gastric cancer
Chemotherapy
Predictive model
Prognosis
