摘要
目的 调查医养结合医院老年患者运动恐惧的现状,并分析其影响因素,构建预测模型。方法 采用便利抽样法,于2023年1月-2024年4月选取南宁市第八人民医院地洞口分院的283例老年住院患者为研究对象,按照入组时间先后顺序将前70%的患者设为建模组(n=198),后30%的患者设为验证组(n=85)。采用Logistic回归分析探讨医养结合医院老年患者运动恐惧的影响因素,基于影响因素构建风险预测模型,并采用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)曲线检验其预测效能。结果 医养结合医院老年患者运动恐惧发生率为53.36%。Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、慢性病数量、体质指数、家人探望频率、抑郁、日常生活能力以及有无视力障碍、肢体疼痛、衰弱是医养结合医院老年患者运动恐惧的影响因素。建模组ROC曲线下面积为0.976,敏感度为0.933,特异度为0.903;验证组ROC曲线下面积为0.976,敏感度为0.948,特异度为0.903。两组Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果均P>0.05。结论 医养结合医院老年患者运动恐惧发生率较高,本研究构建的医养结合医院老年患者运动恐惧预测模型具有较好的区分度和校准度,可为医护人员提供高危人群的筛选工具。
Objective To understand the current situation of kinesiophobia of elderly patients in medical and elderly care integrated hospitals and analyze its influencing factors,so as to build a nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 283 elderly inpatients in Didongkou branch of the eighth people′s hospital of Nanning from January 2023 to April 2024 were selected by using convenience sampling.According to the enrollment time,the first 70%patients were set as the modeling group(n=198),while the rest 30%were chosen into the verification group(n=85).Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of kinesiophobia.According to the influencing factors,a nomogram prediction model was constructed,the predictive performance of prediction model was tested using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results The incidence of exercise fear was 53.36%among the elderly patients.Age,number of chronic diseases,BMI,frequency of family visits,depression,activities of daily living,presence or absence of visual impairment,limb pain,frailty were included in the prediction model.In the modeling group,the area under the ROC curve was 0.976,the sensitivity was 0.933,the specificity was 0.903.In the verification group,the area under the ROC curve was 0.976,the sensitivity was 0.948,the specificity was 0.903.Moreover,the Hosmer-Lemeshow test results of both groups were more than 0.05.Conclusion The incidence of kinesiophobia is high among elderly patients in medical and elderly care integrated hospitals.The nomogram prediction model constructed in this study is of good differentiation and calibration with high net yield.Therefore,it is of good prediction efficiency and clinical applicability.
作者
陈莲
陈信
CHEN Lian;CHEN Xin(General Department of Didongkou Branch,The Eighth People's Hospital of Nanning,Nanning 530001,China;Outpatient service,Disease Control and Prevention Center of Shanglin County,Nanning 530507,China)
出处
《中国临床护理》
2025年第2期67-72,共6页
Chinese Clinical Nursing
关键词
医养结合医院
老年患者
运动恐惧
影响因素
预测模型
列线图
Medical and elderly care integrated hospital
Elderly patient
Kinesiophobia
Influencing factors
Prediction model
Nomogram
