摘要
农业产业链韧性是建成农业强国的重要支撑,也是筑牢我国粮食安全底线的重要保障,当前数字经济驱动社会生产方式变革的环境下,探究数字经济对农业产业链韧性的影响与作用机制,对实现农业高质量发展和建成农业强国意义重大。文章利用2013—2022年中国粮食主产区的156个地级市面板数据从生产、经营、流通、生态四个方面构建农业产业链韧性指标体系,并利用双向固定效应模型、门槛模型及中介效应模型实证分析数字经济对农业产业链韧性的作用机理。结果表明:在粮食主产区地级市层面上,数字经济发展能够显著提升农业产业链韧性水平,该结论在经过一系列的稳健性检验后依旧稳健。门槛检验中,数字经济对农业产业链韧性的提升作用会受到农村人力资本水平的影响,表现出“边际效应”递增的非线性特征。机制分析发现数字经济通过促进绿色创新和绿色乡村发展来提升农业产业链韧性。此外,数字经济影响农业产业链韧性具有异质性,表现为数字经济在东北和中西部对农业产业链韧性影响显著,而对东部地区影响不显著。因此,未来应因地制宜,以绿色发展为导向,促进数字经济与农业生产全过程深度融合,增强农业产业链韧性。
The resilience of the agricultural industry chain is an important support for building an agricultural power and an important guarantee for building a solid bottom line of China′s food security.In the current environment where the digital economy drives the transformation of social production mode,exploring the impact and mechanism of the digital economy on the resilience of the agricultural industry chain is of great significance for achieving high-quality agricultural development and building an agricultural power.Based on the panel data of 156 cities in China′s major grain-producing areas from 2013 to 2022,this paper constructs an agricultural industry chain resilience index system from four aspects:production,operation,circulation and ecology,and empirically analyzes the mechanism of digital economy on agricultural industry chain resilience by using two-way fixed effect model,threshold model and intermediary effect model.The results show that the development of digital economy can significantly improve the resilience of agricultural industry chain at the prefecture-level city level in major grain producing areas,and this conclusion is still robust after a series of robustness tests.In the threshold test,the enhancement effect of digital economy on the resilience of agricultural industry chain will be affected by the level of rural human capital,showing a non-linear feature of increasing“marginal effect”.The mechanism analysis found that the digital economy improves the resilience of the agricultural industry chain by promoting green innovation and green rural development.In addition,the impact of digital economy on the resilience of the agricultural industry chain is heterogeneous,showing that the digital economy has a significant impact on the resilience of the agricultural industry chain in the northeast and central and western regions,while the impact on the eastern region is not significant.Therefore,in the future,according to local conditions,green development should be taken as the guide to promote the deep integration of the digital economy and the whole process of agricultural production,and enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry chain.
作者
朱俊奇
唐敏
ZHU Junqi;TANG Min(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science&Technology,Huainan,Anhui 232001,China)
出处
《安徽理工大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第1期14-23,共10页
Journal of Anhui University of Science and Technology:Social Science
基金
安徽省高等学校科学研究项目:“双碳”约束下安徽省数字经济与实体经济深度融合发展路径研究(2023AH040152)。
关键词
农业产业链韧性
数字经济
绿色创新
绿色乡村
粮食安全
resilience of the agricultural industry chain
digital economy
green innovation
green countryside
food security
