摘要
为量化评估电力供应稳定性对数字经济发展的影响程度,构建了涵盖电力供应装机容量、三次产业数字经济规模等变量在内的系统动力学模型,探究了“拉闸限电”等突发情景下电力供应稳定性对数字经济发展的作用机理.结果表明,中国数字经济规模在“十四五”期间将保持高速发展态势,到2025年将超过70万亿元;数字经济规模将随着电力供给的减少而减少,若日均发电时间或年度工作天数减少1%、5%和10%,则数字经济规模将平均减少9.28%、14.24%和20.43%;通过科技创新来提高各产业的产值系数,可以降低因拉闸限电或发电机组故障对数字经济发展的影响.最后,从中国增强电力供给稳定性方面提出了对策建议.
To quantify the impact of the stability of power supply on the development of the digital economy,a system dynamics model is constructed,including variables such as power supply installed capacity and the scale of the digital economy in the three industries.The model explores the mechanism of how the stability of power supply affects the development of the digital economy in scenarios such as power outages and electricity rationing.The results show that the scale of China's digital economy will maintain a high growth trend during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period and is expected to exceed 70 trillion yuan by 2025.The scale of the digital economy will decrease with the reduction of power supply.If the average daily electricity generation time or the number of working days per year decreases by 1%,5%,and 10%,the digital economy scale will decrease by an average of 9.28%,14.24%,and 20.43%respectively.By promoting technological innovation to improve the value-added coefficients of various industries,the impact of power outages or generator failures on the development of the digital economy can be reduced.Finally,policy recommendations are proposed to enhance power supply stability in China.
作者
王方
武承炫
余乐安
WANG Fang;WU Chengxuan;YU Lean(School of Economics&Management,Xidian University,Xi'an 710126;Business School,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065)
出处
《系统科学与数学》
北大核心
2025年第2期344-356,共13页
Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences
基金
西安市软科学重点项目(23RKYJ0006)
陕西省科协决策咨询课题(陕科协发[2023]规字5号)资助课题。
关键词
电力供应
数字经济
系统动力学
应急管理
Electricity supply
digital economy
system dynamics
emergency management
