摘要
本文结合2011~2020年我国主要城市面板数据,通过实证模型研究城市房价泡沫与地方财政风险之间的作用关系,同时采用面板门限模型来研究二者之间的非线性关系并挖掘其发生作用的内在驱动因子。研究结果表明:城市房价泡沫是地方财政风险上升的重要因子,且其之间存在“U”型非线性关系,当房价泡沫水平相对较低且处于门限值左侧时,房价泡沫能够减缓地方财政压力,提高地方财政自主性,从而降低地方财政风险;当房价泡沫水平较高且处于门限值右侧时,房价泡沫会加剧地方财政压力,降低地方财政自主性,造成地方财政风险提升。机制检验表明:房价泡沫通过影响国有土地收入效益和房地产行业经济效益作用于地方财政风险。对此,本文提出以下政策性建议:1.要辩证看待房价泡沫及其在不同区制下对地方财政风险的影响差异,采取差异化的城市房地产调控策略;2.坚持“房住不炒”,优化地方财政收支结构,逐步摆脱土地财政模式;3.降低“土地杠杆”,规范地方政府融资;4.坚持适度调控,力争房地产行业软着陆;5.全面做好财政收紧准备,提升地方财政抗压能力。
Based on the panel data of major prefecture level cities in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper studies the relationship between urban housing price foam and local fiscal risk through an empirical model.At the same time,the panel threshold model is used to study the nonlinear relationship between the two and explore the internal driving factors of their effects.The following conclusions can be drawn from the study:First,in the long run,the expansion of urban housing price foam will aggravate local financial risks.With the continuous expansion of the urban housing price foam,the local financial pressure will continue to intensify,and the local financial autonomy will also weaken,eventually leading to the accumulation of financial risks and threats to local financial security.Meanwhile,local financial risks are influenced by various factors such as local economy,society,technology,education,etc.Cities with developed economic levels and higher levels of urbanization will have a stronger ability to mitigate financial risks,and areas with a high proportion of financial investment in technology and education will also face a decrease in financial risks.Second,in the short term,the impact of urban housing price foam on local fiscal risk is nonlinear.The impact of housing price foam level on local fiscal risk is not simply"one ebb and another"or"mutual promotion",but a phased nonlinear impact,which is characterized by a"U-shaped"relationship.On the one hand,the low level of housing price foam is conducive to stabilizing the effectiveness of local finance and is the"inhibitor"of local financial risks.When the housing price foam is at a low level,the growth of the housing price foam within a certain range is conducive to easing local financial pressure,improving local financial autonomy,and thus reducing local financial risks.On the other hand,the high expansion of the housing price foam is not conducive to the security and stability of local finance,and is the"catalyst"for local financial risks.When the housing price foam level breaks through the threshold,its effect on local financial risk will reverse.The continued expansion of the housing price foam at a higher level will lead to a sharp increase in local financial pressure,reduce local financial autonomy,and thus enhance local financial risk.Third,the housing price foam affects local fiscal risks by affecting local fiscal revenue and expenditure.The real estate market holds an important economic position in China,and land finance is an important component of local fiscal revenue and expenditure.As an important indicator to measure the development level and risk level of the real estate industry,the housing price foam is closely related to the local fiscal revenue and expenditure.When the housing price foam deepens,local finance will bear huge pressure on the income side,and also face problems such as resource allocation and allocative efficiency on the expenditure side,which will lead to increased local financial pressure and decreased local financial autonomy,thus forming huge local financial risks.The mechanism test shows that the housing price foam affects the local financial risk by affecting the income benefits of state-owned land and the economic benefits of the real estate industry.In this regard,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:First,we should dialectically look at the housing price foam and its impact on local financial risks under different district systems,and adopt differentiated urban real estate regulation strategies;Secondly,we must adhere to the principle of"the house is for living,not for speculation",optimize the structure of local fiscal revenue and expenditure,and gradually break away from the land finance model.Thirdly,reduce land leverage and regulate local government financing.Fourthly,adhere to moderate regulation and strive for a soft landing in the real estate industry.Fifth,comprehensively prepare for fiscal tightening and enhance local fiscal resilience.
出处
《浙江金融》
2024年第11期3-18,共16页
Zhejiang Finance
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“房价泡沫空间溢出对区域金融风险的影响机制和防范研究”(19BJY244)。
关键词
地方财政风险
财政安全
房价泡沫
面板门限模型
中介效应
Local Financial Risk
Financial Security
Housing Bubble
Panel Threshold Model
Mesomeric Effect
